It has never been a political crisis to favor the economy of the country in which it is going. In her case, the economic context of the new political crisis that broke out with the prime minister’s decision to seek a vote of confidence – a move that will probably lead to the collapse of his government – is the worst that could exist for two reasons.
On the one hand, due to the incomprehensible and unmistakable fiscal deficit that has soared the country’s borrowing costs – the interest rate on 10 -year French bonds has been erupted to 3.5%, surpassing the Greek.
On the other hand, due to the country’s commitments to increase the flow of national resources in programs, even for US weapons purchases under the recent EU -US Agreement, depriving these resources from investments that would boost growth and employment.
The Bairo government is in danger of falling for the same reason that the Government of its predecessor, the Government of its predecessor, fell in the autumn last year. Michel Barnier: Due to inability to vote for austerity.
And yet! The French share many of the central economic goals that Bayrou has set in the budget for 2026. Some measures, such as the abolition of two national holidays, for example, may be judged by public opinion as excessively and endlessly non -functional – how many work will be lost after 10th. Yellow vests?
The French first share, with an overwhelming rate of 73%, according to a survey conducted by ELABE in July, the need to reduce the country’s fiscal deficit to 2.8% in 2029 from 5.8% where it was ejected in 2024-the highest in the EU. Pan -European) of 3,346 trillion. euro in the first quarter of the year and 113% of GDP. As a percentage of GDP, French debt is left alone in Greek (153.6%) and Italian (137.9%).
The belief that the current situation is not viable is established in French public opinion. 82% of voters consider, for example, that it is not possible to continue the abuse of the right to leave sick leave by the workers.
They seek social justice and fiscal consolidation. But they disagree with the methodology and policies proposed by the prime minister and his government and the president Emmanuel Macronbecause in the French system of the Presidential Republic the President appoints the government and has expanded executive powers.
Target the true intent of the government
The mistrust of the French people therefore have to do with the true intention of the rulers to fairly distribute the burdens of the common effort to be undertaken. Thus, while 57% of the French believe that a fiscal adjustment plan “is necessary for the country”, 72% believe that the proposed plan “does not equitate the required efforts” fairly.
The belief of the unfair distribution of economic burdens has been established in recent decades by echoing economic inequalities in the country. Research by the French National Institute of Statistical Studies (INSEE), which was released in July, showed that poverty increased by one percentage point, to 15.4% in 2023 from 14.4% in 2022, reaching a record level since 1996 when the Institute began.
The number of people who live permanently in a regular residence in France – excluding homeless and those living in caravans or constantly moving – and are under the poverty threshold of 9.8 million in the metropolitan country.
The poverty threshold is set at € 1,288 per month, while the minimum wage has been set at € 1,426.30 this year. It goes without saying that the wave of popular discontent, And the left is not exaggerated by those below the poverty line. It grows from the middle class. But how else do the poor approach the 10 million if not from the systematic poverty of the middle class?
So it was left for the French government to try to persuade the National Assembly to support it by resorting to dangers like that of the Minister of Finance Eric Lobar about. Certainly France is also ‘Too big to resort to the IMF’as Capital Economics estimated last Wednesday.
The Macroeconomic Studies company believes that if the second eurozone economy undergoes a speculative attack, its partners in the EU will rush to save it by lending from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and also by issuing a joint debt from the ECB. But how else could it be interpreted by markets if not as an invitation to shortening French bonds?
