The advancement of commercial tariffs and the escalation of exchange rate volatility has been pressing directly the cash flow of small and medium -sized Brazilian (SMEs) with exposure to the foreign market. The assessment is by Felipe Riberti, Head of XP’s exchange rates & international distribution, which warns of the financial bottlenecks created by narrower margins and the difficulty of predicting income and expenses.
According to him, the recent increase in export rates for the United States has expanded uncertainty and forced many companies to reduce margins to keep up.
“This scenario, coupled with the exchange rate volatility, reduces the financial predictability of these companies. Those who operate with smaller margins are more exposed to sudden shocks.”
The dollar climb at the end of 2024 is cited by the executive as an example of the impact that can make business unfeasible. “In just two months, the currency rose nearly 16%, from $ 5.44 to close to $ 6.30. Which company can survive it without protection?” He asks.
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For Riberti, the problem is that many SME still underestimate the exchange rate and postpone the adoption of hedge mechanisms.
“We often hear businessmen saying that the protection is expensive and that the exchange should not vary so much. But when the movements occur, it’s too late.”
Protection tools are more affordable
If before hedge products were restricted to large corporations, the scenario has changed in recent years. Today, small and medium -sized companies can hire instruments such as exchange lock with more easily and reduced cost.
According to Riberti, XP helped democratize access. Today, the SMEs can crank gear in a simple way, often without the limit of credit, guarantees or bureaucracy.
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“In most cases, just have an open and qualified account. This was a break of paradigms and made many migrate from large banks to our solutions,” he explains.
In practice, the executive points out that mechanisms previously seen as sophisticated can already be operated as simple as the hiring of exchange in sight.
“This is not about winning or losing, but of seeking predictability for the business. The secret is to combine relatively simpler financial instruments with operational and commercial management.”
This view also dismantles the idea that protection is the privilege of the great.
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“It is a myth to believe that only listed or structured board companies can protect themselves. Today, the SME can and should adopt a hedge policy,” he adds.
From risk to opportunity: when the exchange may favor
Although the exchange rate is often treated only as a threat, the executive points out that he can turn into competitive advantage for prepared companies.
“Companies that adopt consistent protection policy gain predictability and manage to benefit from competitors who are not protected,” he says.
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In his view, the risk is to make decisions based only on the moment, without prior planning.
“When the entrepreneur is priceless, he usually does so in the worst scenario. That’s why the protection policy must be structured in advance.”
The effect of sudden tariff change is also on the radar. According to Riberti, the biggest challenge for the financial planning of SMEs is the unpredictability of the current scenario.
“Today we do not know if the fare will be 15% or 100% tomorrow. The entrepreneur does not need to try to guess the changes that can be made, but is prepared for any scenario,” he says.
Sectors exposed to foreign trade, imports of inputs or with foreign currency debts are among the most vulnerable.
“The macro scenario only intensifies a risk that has always existed. The differential is to have a well -done protection strategy.”
In a way, for him, the exchange rate becomes opportunity when the SME can align business model, cost structure and market to benefit from the variation, “either by gaining competitiveness in exports, attracting international customers, or taking advantage of shopping and investment windows.”
