With the beginning of and seven other defendants last Tuesday (2), the attention turned to possible reactions to a possible arrest of the former president in closed regime. The end of the trial is scheduled to take place only on the 12th, but until then, many new facts may argue the scenario, both by the political class and the population.
On the first day of judgment, real -time monitoring of more than 100,000 public groups of E Telegram pointed to greater Bolsonaro supporters activity. Considering the last 48 hours, approximately 60% of the messages exchanged on the subject in the messenger groups were favorable to the former president.
The main narratives within the group that was favorable to point to an accusation that the judgment performed by the political and persecutory. In this line, users argue that the process is undemocratic, given Bolsonaro’s electoral representativeness. The messages also reinforce the expression “dictatorship of the toga”, as well as much criticism of the minister.
The theme, despite being quite commented, was restricted to a more engaged audience, either in groups that were created with the purpose of discussing politics, or in those supporters of a particular politician, both right and left.
Considering the messages contrary to Bolsonaro, and, therefore, those who are favorable to closed prison, the predominant narrative is that an exemplary punishment should occur to the defendants to demonstrate the strength of Brazilian democratic institutions. This audience, which represents approximately one third of the messages on the subject, puts the guardian of the Constitution and seeks to undo any relativization about Bolsonaro’s participation in what they call the “coup plot.”
Going beyond the messages about the trial specifically, it is possible to observe in the monitoring of Palver the attempt to increase the engagement of the general public around the events of. In this line, instead of discussing the judgment itself, the messages are concentrated around a call to action, called “Reaja Brasil – Brazil needs you”, which has already been. The campaign has videos and images produced with artificial intelligence and disseminated in the messenger groups.
In the campaign, which has the participation of right -wing politicians, there is a call for demonstrations across the country, which should take place next Sunday (7). The distribution of the campaign is segmented by region and has local political actors to reinforce the invitation.
In monitoring the repercussion in messaging applications in the last five days, the mentions of the trial reached high levels, with peak of nearly 2,000 messages (every 100,000) at 5 pm on the 20% of them unfavorable to Bolsonaro’s conviction.
Still, the first day revealed an important contrast: despite the expectation, the trial did not become a show. The engagement, which grew in the morning and went back in the middle of the afternoon, lost strength in the face of the sessions, marked by technical exhibitions and often perceived as monotonous by online audiences.
The procedural pace, the formality of transmission and the style of speech made it difficult to create viral cuts, restricting the spontaneous circulation of comments in real time. Instead of a spectacle, the trial premiered as an institutional rite – though, protocol and resistant to the viralization logic that structures digital policy.
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