‘The Step’ addressed the Damienne bowlProfessor and Researcher at the CEVIPOF Center of Sciences PO in, to analyze the complex political situation in.
The French do not want to make sacrifices to reduce debt and politicians cannot agree with each other to lift the impasse. How do you explain this “self -contained” behavior?
“We have to look at it within the institutional framework of the French Fifth Republic, where there is usually a majority in parliament, a president who belongs to the same party as the prime minister, all decisions are taken by the government and then ratified in parliament.
. From the 2024 elections we have a highly fragmented parliament without a majority, which means that the government must always negotiate to pass the laws.
This is complicated because of debt because difficult decisions are needed to reduce. To see what changes he could make to vote for the budget. But it seems that he will not succeed and will probably lose the confidence of parliament and collapse. “
What will happen after September 8, since the government will probably not receive a vote of confidence?
«There are two options: either we will go to the elections, if the president decides to dismantle parliament and call early elections, or, more likely, a new government will begin.
That is, he will resign and the president will appoint a new prime minister who could secure Parliament’s confidence. This is possible, but it will take time to form a new government. So, it is likely that the budget and debt policies will be delayed. So we are in danger of entering a period of instability again. “
The cliché that “there are no deadlock in democracy” seems to be not the case in France, because if elections are held they will again lead to a fragmented parliament that the budget will not be able to pass. What should be done?
“In France, but also elsewhere in the world, we are living a time of political fragmentation. Therefore, there must always be negotiated between the parties in parliament in order to reach consensus. But in France we do not have this culture, because there were always clear majorities. . I think the political culture has to change, go to more negotiations and compromises.
France will slowly evolve to this model, but today it is in the process of transition: it goes through the two blocks-left and right-in a multipolar system of many blocks. He has to learn to operate in this new framework. “
President Macron bears the main responsibility for calling early elections in 2024 and then appointed prime ministers who did not support parliament?
“. But I think there was a deeper tendency that was inevitable: Parliament’s fragmentation would come anyway, if not in 2024, then later. It is an evolution we see in many European countries, with increasing parties that express the increasingly polarized preferences of society. The president could not prevent it, it just accelerated it. “
