China never bought as much soy from Brazil as in 2025. From January to August, almost 66 million tons of oilseeds were shipped to the Chinese, according to data released on Thursday by the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex). Last month alone, there were 8 million tons, or 85% of total soybean exports in Brazil in the period.
Historically high, China’s current participation in Brazilian soybean exports is only comparable to 2018, when Donald Trump launched the First Trade War against Beijing. The difference is that, since then, Brazilian soy production has shot more than 40%. That is, we are talking about much larger volumes.
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The performance reflects China’s absence in the US soy market this year-a consequence of the reciprocal tariff imposed by Beijing on Washington in March, which ended the competitiveness of American soy.
Since then, China has not even bought any soybean loads from the United States, which begins the oilseed of the oilseed this month and concentrates its shipments in the second half.
The situation is so worrying that it led American producers to ask for relief to Trump last month. “Producers cannot survive a prolonged commercial dispute with their largest client,” they said in a letter to the president.
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But with the negotiations between the United States and China extended until November 10, the crushing Chinese may pass 2025 without seeing the color of American soy.
This context has directly influenced export awards in Brazilian ports. Even after a record harvest, the prize is still high for the last quarter of the year (around $ 1.50 per Bushel) – a period normally dominated by the United States in soybean trade. And it remains positive for the beginning of 2025, which is also atypical – at this time, they are usually negative due to supply pressure in Brazil.
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“Since Trump took over the second term, the awards have not returned to the negative ground,” said Carlos Cogo, a consultant who specializes in the sector, during a lecture this week at a congress in São Paulo.
This dynamic has strengthened internal prices. In August, soy was practically stable compared to the same period of 2024, despite grounds that, under normal conditions, would exert a low pressure, Rabobank analyst Marcela Marini noted in a report released this week. Among these factors, she cites the record harvest in the country and the continuity of the recomposition of global stocks.
With the maintenance of the impasse between USA and China, Rabobank expects Brazilian shipments to remain strong in the coming months, raising exports from 2024/25 crop to 110 million tons. From January to August, there were 86.5 million, according to Secex.
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The alert is for the moment Washington and Beijing reach an agreement, he says. If China clears the import tariff on American soybeans, today 23%, prizes in Brazilian ports will collapse, also overthrowing the amounts paid to producers, said the consultant. For him, farmers are ignoring the opportunity to ensure good profitability in the crop that begins to be planted this month.
“We have 20% of the 2025/26 crop soy only. Producers are missing a spectacular opportunity to make a good year,” he warned.
