The recent pressure will result in an important thermometer of the current political force of members of the three powers and competitors to the 2026 presidential elections.
All of these groups are involved in one way or another in the discussion of the project that can be voted by the House and after the probable condemnation of NO this week.
There are four possibilities of outcome for the discussion.
The first, which is the only one that has openly circulating text, is the approval of a wide amnesty, which would make Bolsonaro eligible again, thesis defended by and the closest allies of the former president.
Interestingly, it is evaluated behind the scenes with a zero chance to come true. Even your supporters recognize the difficulty and there are still those who say the idea is to send it the way they consider ideal, but already with some “fat” for negotiation in the houses.
In addition, the proposal would embarrass the largest electoral claim today of the right-wing and right-wing center party that controls Congress, the governor’s presidential candidacy (-SP).
The second hypothesis is also that of a broad amnesty, with criminal forgiveness to Bolsonaro, but maintaining its ineligibility. This is defended by most members of these parties ,.
The first problem of this proposal is that even members of the acronyms of Centrão evaluate that not all deputies are favorable, even in the face of a positive party orientation. In the PSD, for example, the calculations account for half of the bench – the party also integrates the first echelon of the government (PT).
The idea also bumps into the president of the Senate, (Union-AP), and the wing of ministers of the (Supreme Court), who claim to have a majority in the court to consider it unconstitutional.
The third possibility of a penalty reduction to those convicted of the January 8 coup attacks, without including leaders and funders, excluding Bolsonaro.
It is closer to the position expressed by the mayor (Republicans-PB). The deputy was elected to the position by balancing between the two poles and defended the discussion of an intermediate text, resisted to guide the measure and began to admit it to the pressure.
The fourth possibility is that there is no approval of any amnesty, either because it is not voted or not to conclude the processing, a hypothesis considered possible by parliamentarians, either because it is defeated – a minor considered less likely.
If Amnesty advances, the greatest victorious ones would be these parties and Tarcisio. The text was a priority agenda of the pockets since the beginning of the legislature and has now gained breath with the entry of these acronyms and the governor of São Paulo in the articulation.
Tarcisio would be able to obtain the support of the political godfather and his most fervent allies, essential for any pretense of victory of a right -wing candidate.
The gesture is also seen as his first endeavor in a national movement, a way of moving politically, since he has no history of being an experimental articulator.
The center-right and right parties, in particular, and republicans, would have the candidacy for which they work, including dispute for the vice: a right-wing plate supported by the group, but without carrying the surnames of the plate the rejection associated with pockets.
In addition, Bolsonaro released, but ineligible is still considered an important electoral cable next year.
In the House, the perspectives of amnesty advancement are greater. In the Senate, there are still doubts about the number of votes, but enthusiasts of the proposal say that the president of the house will not be able to hold the pressure so as not to guide it.
This hypothesis would represent a sign that Alcolumbre has no control over the Senate-who presided over in 2019 and 2020, elected the successor, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), and returned to the post this year.
About Motta, he would represent another decision he retreated and did not have his leadership or support. And it would raise the perception among deputies that Arthur Lira (PP-AL), the former president and one of the center’s leading leaders, continues to let the cards in the house.
The domes of the executive and the judiciary would also come out with important damage. Lula would see the strengthening of the main competitor in 2026 and the Supreme Court, the knock of the core of one of the main judgments of its history.
The hypothesis of a “half-terry” amnesty, defended by alcoholumbre, who does not represent a pure and simple cancellation of the STF’s decision and does not embrace Bolsonaro, even sympathizes with some STF ministers.
This exit would represent a kind of zero to zero to much of the political groups, given that it would serve the part of their claims, although not all.
Centrão and Tarcisio would remain a good balance by maintaining the perspective of bolsonarism support on the grounds that they endeavored to help Bolsonaro.
Lula, the left and the Supreme Court would maintain the speech that they avoided the worst. And the pockets, although not being able to claim in the speech, would put another amnesty in Brazilian political history, even if not total.
Already the hypothesis that there was no amnesty would reinforce the perception of strength of the Supreme Court and Lula, which should try in October 2026 to be elected to a fourth term.
Some politicians say that this scenario is possible in view of the perception that the current commitment of Tarcisio and Centrão aims to give pockets a satisfaction than being effective.
An amnesty project, whatever it is, should begin to be processed after the end of the coup plot trial this week. If approved, it goes to Lula’s sanction. In case of veto, Congress has the final word, and can knock it down, with half the votes of each house.
It is up to the Supreme Court, however, to evaluate probable questions to such a project. Being able to declare it, in the end, unconstitutional.
Today one of the main unknowns in the articulation of the center and Tarcisio concerns the Supreme Court, with whom they say dialogue to seek to ensure the maintenance of amnesty, if approved. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), told the Sheet In June that, to receive the support of the father, the presidential candidate must not only grant pardon to his father, but fight with the Supreme for it, if necessary.
