The government of France, under the command of Prime Minister François Bayrou, seems to be about to fall, as the prime minister will face a vote of distrust on Monday (8).
Bayrou called the vote to try to approve unpopular budget -related plans in 2026, and opposition parties said they will vote against him.
However, regardless of what happens, the country seems to be bound to go through a period of political instability, an analyst told Reuters agency.
President Emmanuel Macron Case Bayrou loses, causing him to have to find a new prime minister-possibly from the center left, after his last four right coffee choices could not deal with a fragmented parliament.
Political science teacher Kevin Arceneaux told Reuters that it is hard to imagine to approve a budget.
Based on current research, it seems unlikely that new elections change the composition of chairs in the French National Assembly and produce a clear majority for any political group.
A great point of disagreement is that there is little consensus among parties on how to reduce France’s debt, which rose to 113.9% of GDP, and a deficit that was almost double the 3% limit of the European Union last year.
“Right center forces want to do this by reducing spending, especially with social services. The left want to do so by increasing taxes on the rich. And these two ideas are incompatible,” Arceneaux explained.
The expert stressed that there should be no rapid resolution after voting. But the best scenario would be that a new prime minister “will be able to elaborate a budget that can be approved and thank the financial investors.”
Even if this happens, “it will be in the final stretch,” added Arceneaux.
