The governor of dedicated the last week to perform as to the former president.
(Republicans) did not get the endorsement of and has no audio and video records that you can use in the 2026 campaign. More than that, you know that Bolsonaro and his family are not known for faithfulness to political allies.
Still, the carioca who rules São Paulo believes that he needs to prove to the former president, his family and, above all, the most faithful voters in this class his loyalty. This bet can be a mistake.
In late August, the FGV’s first survey of ConnectLab, the new Applied Research Center, coordinated by Felipe Nunes, dedicated to studying topics such as affective polarization was presented at the FGV school.
The survey shows that the contingent of voters who declare themselves Lulistas and Bolsonarists is smaller than perceived.
According to the survey, the Independents, the most important group for the outcome of the 2026 election, and that as in 2022 will define the result, there are 31% of Brazilians, but are perceived as a smaller group, only 15%. Between pocket voters are perceived as only 11%.
Perhaps it is this misrepresented perception that guides Tarcisio to strive so much in building an image of. The governor should be more cautious.
QUESTE AUGUST Survey on São Paulo Government evaluation points out that, not combined with Lula or Bolsonaro. There is no reason to believe that this group wants a nearby presidential president of pockets.
They corroborate this perception recent research from Quaest and Datafolha, which point out that those involved in the attack.
There is no figure on the right to face the São Paulo governor in the 2026 presidential race.
In the Bolsonaro family, the.
The firstborn, the most pragmatic, would not resign in a guaranteed reelection to the Senate. In addition, excessive exposure of a presidential candidacy may rekindle complaints that Flavio prefers to forget.
For Michelle, the calculation is similar: it involves giving up the Senate by the Federal District, less crowded competition, and facing machismo and the mutual distrust that reign in the family. The former president himself in July said the Senate would be his wife’s fate.
Outside the family, Tarcisio is the best known name nationally and has the sympathy of entrepreneurs and significant portion of the press, who, despite the atrocities daily committed by the São Paulo Military Police with support from the governor, continue to reputation as a moderate name.
The risk of engaging excessively in the defense of amnesty and criticism of the Federal Supreme Court is to tarnish its moderate image and to rule out independent financiers, the press and voters. These, while not approving the Lula 3 government, do not want to vote for a bolsonarism doormat and may repeat the choice of 2022.
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