USP estimates 42,200 people on the right act on av. Paulista

The right -wing demonstration held on Sunday (7.Set.2025) on Paulista Avenue in São Paulo gathered 42,200 people, according to USP/CEBRAP’s calculation in partnership with the NGO More in Common. The survey used aerial images analyzed by artificial intelligence, with an error margin of 12%. Read (PDF – 11MB).

The calculation indicates an audience, at peak, from 37,100 to 47,300 participants. In 2024, in the act of September 7th on Paulista Avenue, USP registered 45,400 people.

The count made by Poder360 lower than that registered on August 3, of (PL) went to Paulista Avenue. The data shows that the right continues to mobilize expressive public even without the physical presence of the former president, who has been on August 4, by decision of Minister Alexandre de Moraes, of the Supreme Court (STF).

The act, convened by Pastor Silas Malafaia, had as its central agenda the amnesty of the convicts by January 8 and Bolsonaro himself. The theme was once again gaining strength with the articulation of the governor of São Paulo, (Republicans), who began to defend the proposal.

The demonstrations took place in several cities of the country on the eve of the resumption of Bolsonaro’s trial for the attempted coup. The process will be analyzed by the 1st Class of the Supreme Court from Tuesday (9.Set), when Moraes will present his vote. Sessions are also planned on September 10, 11 and 12.

USP Methodology

In all, USP made 47 images during the act. Photos were taken at 3 different times (15h05, 16h03 and 16h40).

For the calculation, the researchers selected 15 photos taken at 4:03 pm, time identified as the public peak on Paulista Avenue. The images covered the full extent of the manifestation, without overlap.

The material was analyzed by the P2PNet method (Point to Point Network), developed by researchers at the University of Chequião (China) and the company Tencent. Technology, based on artificial intelligence, automatically identifies people’s heads in the photos and counts each point, ensuring greater accuracy even in areas of great density.

According to the organizers, the system currently reaches 72.9% accuracy and 69.5% accuracy, resulting in an absolute average error of 12%. This means that in a calculation of 100,000 people, the actual number can range from 88,000 to 112,000. To give transparency, the image bank is publicly available, allowing any citizen to validate the data or perform a manual count.

Power Public Estimation360

O Poder360 He used high resolution aerial photos to calculate public estimation on Sunday (7.Set). The images were recorded by a drone from 4:02 pm to 4:04 pm, at the time of greater concentration of the act, during Tarcisio’s speech.

With the photos available, the area occupied by the protesters was squad with Google Earth so that it was possible to know how many square meters there was public.

O Poder360 marked the places according to the concentration:

• density low – one person per m²;
• density medium-middle – (2 people per m²);
• density average – (3 people per m²);
• density medium-high – (4 people per m²);
• density alta – (5 people per m²).

Then he added the number of people in each square meter and has reached the estimated total – which will always be approximate, because in concentrations of this nature people move from side to side often. Nor is it possible to clearly identify people under trees or buildings of buildings.

Here is the infographic in the area occupied during the act:

Aerial Images

Pro-Bolsonaro Acts

Remember Bolsonaro’s acts since 2023:

• 3.ago.2025 – 57,600 at Av. Paulista, in SP (Bolsonaro was not);
• 29.jun.2025 – 16,400 at Av. Paulista, in SP – Seu Smaller Public on site;
• 8.Mai.2025 – gathered 4,000 in Brasilia;
• 6.abr.2025 – 60,000 at av. Paulista, in SP;
• 16.mar.2025 – 26,000 in Copacabana, in Rio;
• 7.set.2024 – 58,000 at Av. Paulista, in SP;
• 25.fev.2024 – From 300 thousand to 350 thousand in av. Paulista, in SP;
• 21.abr.2024 – From 40,000 to 45,000 in Copacabana, in Rio.

USP

Da da (University of São Paulo) estimated that Bolsonaro’s act had an audience of about 42,200 supporters. The margin of error is 12%, more or less. Read the survey (PDF – 11 MB).

With this, the public, according to USP, can range from 37,100 to 47,300 people. The calculation is done with the help of Chinese software called Point to Point Network. Understand in this Poder360 How the program works.

Bolsonaro’s trial

The 1st class of judges the former president (PL) and 7 more defendants for attempted coup d’état. The case analysis may lengthen until September 12th.

Integrate the 1st class of the STF:

• Alexandre de Moraesrapporteur of the action;
• Flávio Dino;
• Cristiano ZaninPresident of the 1st Class;
• Cármen Lúcia;
• Luiz Fux.

The Supreme has heard the oral support of all defendants’ defenses.

In addition to Bolsonaro, they are defendants:

• Alexandre Ramagem, and ;
• Almir Garnierformer commander of the Navy;
• Anderson Torresformer Minister of Justice;
• Augusto Helenoformer minister of institutional security;
• Mauro Cidex-assistant of presidency orders;
• Paulo Sérgio Nogueiraformer defense minister;
• Walter Braga Netto, of the Civil House.

The nucleus 1 of the coup attempt for the to commit 5 crimes: armed criminal organization and attempts to abolish the democratic rule of law and coup d’état, as well as qualified damage and deterioration of listed assets.

If Bolsonaro is sentenced, the minimum penalty is 12 years in prison. The maxim.

If there is a conviction, the ministers will define the penalty individually, considering the participation of each defendant. The penalties determined against Jair Bolsonaro and the other 7 accused, however, will only be met after the final judgment, when there is no more possibility of appeal.

As a former president, if convicted in res judicata, Bolsonaro should be arrested in a special room in Papuda, federal prison in Brasilia, or at the PF (Federal Police) Superintendence in the federal capital.

Read more about Bolsonaro’s judgment: