Brazilian fruit exports should suffer from the tariff promoted by the president of the United States, Donald Trump, who determined a 50% charge on Brazilian products from August.
Although the volume of fruits exported by Brazil does not record a significant drop, the margins of the fruiting will inevitably be pressured, argued the analysts of the Itaú BBA Agro consultancy in a report distributed on Wednesday.
The Americans, it is worth remembering, are among the main buyers of Brazilian fruits, especially mango and grapes, who lead the country’s sales abroad and should be the most impacted.
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In the sleeve, the US is the second largest buyer, with 14.3% of the total board in 2024. Americans are only behind the Netherlands, with 48.2%, according to data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat.
In grape, the US is also the second largest buyer, with 23.5% of the total last year, behind the Dutch once again, with 34%.
“It is likely that the margins of exporters are reduced, and if sales will be retraction, there will be greater availability in the domestic market and pressure on prices,” analysts wrote.
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According to the bank, the impacts should be higher in the second half, precisely when the export windows of these products are concentrated to the US.
“For mango, the shipping period is concentrated between September and October, and for the grape between October and December,” says the report.
Itaú BBA also points out that although the US has included the manga among exempt products, this advantage only applies to countries considered “aligned partners” – Brazil does not integrate this list.
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Also according to the bank, the scenario is further concerned with perishable food “that need good logistics to ensure the shelf time” – the deadline is tighter for the sleeve.
“On the other hand,” the report points out, “even with tariffs, we do not predict major interruptions in the export chain. The expectation is that there will be a negotiation between exporters and importers in an attempt to minimize impacts, but a continuity of shipments, to keep the market supplied.”
Redirecting is alternative, but limited
As in other chains strongly affected by the fare, such as coffee, Brazil can redirect production to other countries, but this space is larger for grapes and more tight in the case of mango. And in both cases, it should only represent a partial attenuating.
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For grapes, it is easier to access other markets, such as Europe. “For the sleeve, the most sent to the US is Tommy, which does not have the same acceptance in Europe, which consumes Palmer,” says Itaú BBA.
In the case of mango, according to the report, “it is possible that producers plan to better distribute the harvest period.” The bank speculates the possibility that the Palmer variety, preferred by Europeans, gains space in Brazilian crops.
Itaú BBA also pointed out that the sovereign Brasil Plan, released by the government in August and detailed this week, can minimize negative impacts mainly for small and medium -sized companies that export to the US. The plan foresees measures such as credit with lower rates and flexibility of public purchases of perishable food.
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Exports Bate Record
Amid fears for the future of fruit exports, Brazil lived a record in foreign sales from 2025 to August.
In addition to mango and grapes, the Brazilian fruit export agenda includes lemon, melon, watermelon, papaya, avocado, banana, apple and fig, among others.
Considering all exported fruits, the country sold US $ 631.5 million (R $ 3.4 billion) abroad in the first eight months of the year. The total is a record for this temporal window and was 13% above that registered in the same period in 2024.
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In parallel, fruit imports throughout Brazil fell 10% in the year, compared to the same period of 2024, totaling US $ 415 million (R $ 2.2 billion).
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