Bolsonaro Judgment: Understand the calculation of penalties – 10/09/2025 – Power

by Andrea
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The calculation of the sentence after a possible conviction of the former president () and the other defendants will undergo a complex analysis of the five ministers of the first class, involving both objective and subjective criteria, experts say.

Any differences between the class members about each of the accusations analyzed in the trial will also be taken into account in the final calculation of the penalties.

After the presentation of their votes, the ministers of the first class will meet to calculate the penalty of each of the defendants.

In addition to the minimum and maximum penalties for each conduct, there are circumstances, in case of conviction, which may increase or mitigate the penalties imputed to Bolsonaro and the other defendants of the case, which deals with the attempted coup after defeat to (PT) in 2022.

For example, in the case of the armed accusation, the PGR (Attorney General of the Republic) states that this group is composed of civil servants who have used this condition.

The penalty for participation in criminal organization is 3 to 8 years, but there is an increase of up to half of it if the crime involves weapons. For Bolsonaro, if convicted, there is still an aggravating factor for being considered a leader.

In addition, according to the legislation, the penalty may be increased from one sixth to two thirds if it involves civil servant who is worth these conditions.

To decide on the basis of this crime, the judge must take into account “the guilt, the background, the social conduct, the personality of the agent, the motives, the circumstances and consequences of the crime, as well as the behavior of the victim.”

The first two ministers to vote in the case, and, for example, gave signs that they see aggravating and high guilt in Bolsonaro’s conduct in the actions they took to, according to the accusation, stay in power after the electoral defeat.

In the case of a defendant who is a whistleblower, such as Lieutenant Colonel, in case of conviction the penalty is defined from terms agreed with the investigation bodies.

Initially, the military agreed that he and his family would have judicial forgiveness or deprivation of liberty less than two years. PGR, however, saw omissions and suggested a reduction of only one third of the sentence.

In addition to Bolsonaro and Mauro Cid, they are defendants in the case (former ABIN director), Almir Garnier (former Navy Commander), (former Justice Minister) (former GSI minister), Paulo Sérgio Nogueira (former Defense Minister) and (former Minister of the Civil House).

By PGR charges, Bolsonaro, if convicted, can take up to 43 years for the crimes listed. In some expert calculations, however, this penalty can reach 46 years.

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