President Donald Trump’s wide tariff regime is already remodeling global trade and increasing government customs revenue. But these historical imports on imports can also push more Americans to the povertyaccording to new research.
An analysis published by Yale’s The Budget Lab on Tuesday (9) indicates that US tariff increases are likely to raise the number of Americans living in poverty in 875 mil until 2026. This increase includes 375,000 additional children.
The numbers are based on Official poverty measurementa traditional metric based on income before taxes.
Related price rates and price increases tend to hardly reach low -income families. Less wealthy families usually spend a larger portion of their wages on basic expenses than high-income, making them more vulnerable to price changes.
In addition, economists claim that lower income family groups often buy more imported products – which are the most exposed to price increases caused by tariffs – than those of the highest income.
“Tariffs are a tax on American families,” John Ricco, associate director of political analysis of The Budget Lab, told CNN International.
“Because tariffs are a tax on goods and services, not on income, they reach more hard people who spend a higher percentage of income than save.”
The Budget Lab also estimates that the poverty rate would increase to 10,7% after considering Trump’s tariffs, above the 10,4% Without the rates.
Living from salary in salary
There was almost 36 million Of people living in poverty at the end of last year, the US Census Department said on Tuesday (9). The Poverty Rate dropped 0.4 percentage points For 10.6%, as wages and income largely followed the cost of living, the census department found.
The Budget Lab found that poverty would also increase when analyzed by the “supplementary measure of poverty”, a broader indicator that considers government programs such as food vouchers, as well as expenses for children’s, medical and others.
Trump fares will likely increase the number of Americans living in poverty by 650,000 in 2026, according to the supplementary measure of poverty, according to the analysis. This includes 150,000 children. The poverty rate would rise from 12% to 12.2%.
The findings highlight the consequences of price increases caused by tariffs, especially for Americans who are already living in salary.
Higher prices threaten to erode consumers’ purchasing power, and for those who live with smaller income, this can be quite painful.
In statement to CNN InternationalWhite House spokesman Taylor Rogers argued that the economic agenda during Trump’s first term helped “the working class families to prosper, reducing income inequality.”
“As this same AMERICA FIRST agenda of tax cuts, tariffs, unprecedented investments, deregulation and energy dominance continues to take effect during President Trump’s second term, Americans can trust Joe Biden’s economic disaster is coming to an end,” Rogers said.
“Not as weak as it seems”
The White House spokesman also pointed to the lower-who-who-who-expected inflation report, released on Wednesday (10), as evidence that “inflation cooled and tariffs did not increase prices as so-called experts predicted.”
allowing the annual inflation rate to decrease to 2,6%.
However, the fall was driven by a reduction in commercial services, a category that reflects the margins of profit from retailers and wholesalers. The drop in profit margins suggests that companies are absorbing higher costs caused by tariffs in their results.
Naturally, lower profits may cause some companies to transfer these costs to consumers in the highest price, or cut in other areas, such as reducing hiring or dismissing employees.
Barclays economists warned that the wholesale inflation of August was not as weak as it seems “and noted that outside the commercial margins” inflation was reasonably firm. “
Higher rates in almost a century
The tariff increases under Trump have been historical.
Based on the charges imposed by the Republican this year, the average effective tariff rate in the United States jumped to 17,4% – The highest since 1935according to The Budget Lab.
If current rates are maintained, the average effective tariff rate would rise to 17.4%.
Certainly, trade policy has changed rapidly throughout the year. And at the same time, most Trump’s fares is currently in a Legal limbo.
The Supreme Court agreed on Tuesday to hear arguments about the US President’s global tariff policy.
Administration expects judges to reverse the decision of a lower court that annulled Specific tariffs per country, considering that the Republican led illegally in emergency powers.
If justice declares illegal tariffs, this eliminate The vast majority (71%) of charges imposed in 2025 discovered The Budget Lab.
However, analysts and authorities linked to Trump have noted that the president has other powers to appeal to try to keep several rates in force.
