Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said his country is closest to an open conflict since the end of World War II. Poland has activated Article Four North Atlantic Treaty, which has happened only eight times since 1949. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius claims that there is no indication that Russian drones have disrupted the airspace of our neighbor by chance. But only when Juraj Blanár said, do we know that the situation is really serious.
“I want to believe that the drones that penetrated the Polish territory were drones that went there not to attack Poland, but that they were to end up in Ukrainian territory,” said our Minister of Foreign Affairs. If he formulated even a little worse, he would have a paragraph for the promotion of war on the neck, but the attack on Ukraine is really the “better” option.
Paradox of modern war
During the armed conflict, which has been in Ukraine for the fourth year, such attacks are waiting. Their extent, loss of lives and damage can be extraordinary, but not that they happen. Since February 2022, the Russians deployed more than 20,000 drones in Ukraine and used more than five thousand in June this year.
But if they sent them to Poland deliberately, even a foreign policy -disoriented person like our boss of diplomacy, he realizes that it would be an attack on NATO membership. However, Russian drones, shot down in Polish territory, also show the paradox of the modern war. On the one hand, technology makes it extremely easier to escalate conflicts, but on the other, it prevents its most dangerous consequences.
The United States Air Forces describe their distance operations as a “demonstration of force without vulnerability”. While in the past he had to count on the fact that, as he could kill the enemy, the enemy can kill him. The risk was mutual. However, in the drone attacks, the one who leads them does not follow any such risk. It can lose maximum drone, not life.
Apparently that is why drones are becoming one of the most used combat products. According to the UN, in Ukraine they are responsible for more civilian victims and injured than any other weapon. Analysts of National Security News estimate that drones caused up to 80 percent of the battlefield losses in this war.
First to introduce children to school, then kill
As American airman Charles Lindbergh already in 1944, in a modern war the soldier “kills remotely and does not realize that he is killing”. The use of drones, which are controlled for thousands of kilometers far, is still highlighted. “It was the strangest for me to get up in the morning, introduce children to school and kill people,” recalls one American drone operator.
However, this impersonality may not only concern those who operate the drones, but also those who order the attacks. As an Israeli philosopher Daniel Statman, reducing the risk for its own soldiers is one of the main moral benefits of drones. Their use could even increase the willingness of states to engage in humanitarian military interventions.
“It is not easy to justify forced participation in wars aimed at protecting another nation from the oppression regime or some form of genocide, but if the use of drones decreases the risk for soldiers, this problem will be significantly alleviated,” says Statman. Noble consideration. But if it applies, then its exact opposite applies – to order a drone attack as a form of intimidation, pressure or even oppressing another nation is equally easy.
Drones are easy to use, so it seduces the actors to use them. If it was written in 1990 or 2000, and the war would be in a traditional way, the Russians would probably think very well whether they would send fighters to Poland or fired rockets to Poland. It would not be a demonstration of strength, but a real act of aggression – an open attack on the third country with all the risks and consequences.
For us these are just drones
If the Polish air defense shot down, we would not talk about one damaged roof of the house in Wyryki, but perhaps about captured or dead Russian pilots. And if the Russians really did not deliberately, they would be very careful not to happen to them. In the “Bezdron” war, there was no room for easyness and “testing” what else will pass.
But all the risks of drones are at the same time their great advantage in such a situation. If the Polish airspace were disrupted by Russian fighters or rockets, the reaction of the contested country would be completely different. Poland would probably not activate the Article of Four North Atlantic Treaty, but would go directly to Article five, ie the procedure in case of challenging a Member State. And then everything would be possible.
Even those who consider Russia to be a deliberate provocation do not call after a military response. Foreign Policy Magazine writes that NATO must react, but shooting out drones in Russian or Belarus’s airspace would be a step too far. In this situation we can really say that they were “just drones”. Putin counts on it.
We who live to the west of Ukraine can say that. We do not take them so seriously, because it took one roof. For us, they are still “just drones”. Not for the Ukrainians. “I hid in the bathroom. One thinks that behind the walls can be safe, but I will tell you, nothing will protect you if the building gets hit. It was a nightmare,” Nina from Kiev for Aktuality.sk in July.
Beyond the eastern border of NATO, there is nothing like “just drones”. There’s a gun. It has never been easier to use the demonstrated power, than with drones. Vladimir Putin is aware of this. The sooner we realize it, the better.
