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The Ministry of Finance’s Secretariat of Economic Policy (SPE) reduced from 4.9% to 4.8% the projection of inflation this year by the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA). The forecast appears in the Macrophiscal Bulletin, released on Thursday (11). 
According to SPE, the projection of reducing inflation occurs in the context of excessive supply of goods on a world scale, as a reflection of the increase in commercial tariffs, especially the tariff applied to the country by US President Donald Trump.
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The bulletin also points to the lower agricultural and industrial wholesale inflation, as well as the lagged effects of the most appreciated real as elements that contributed to the reduction in forecasting. Another point is that this estimate considers yellow flag for electricity tariffs in December.
The projection is that the IPCA will remain projected above the ceiling of the inflation target for the year, defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN) by 3%, with a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage up or down, ie the lower limit is 1.5%and the upper is 4.5%.
For 2026, the projection is that inflation, measured by the IPCA, remains at 3.6%, converging to the center of the target from 2027 onwards.
INPC
Regarding other inflation rates, SPE also revised estimates. The National Consumer Price Index (INPC), used to establish the minimum wage value and correct pensions, remained with a variation of 4.7%, the same projection as the previous bulletin.
The projection for the General Price Index-Internal Availability (IGP-DI), which includes the wholesale sector, the cost of construction and the final consumer, fell from 4.6% to 2.6% this year. By reflecting wholesale prices, IGP-DI is more susceptible to dollar variations.
Commence
Regarding the estimated growth of the Brazilian economy this year, there was also a 2.5% to 2.3% review. The newsletter explains that the review is related to the outcome below the expected observed for Gross Domestic Product (GDP, sum of the second -quarter goods and services in the country) compared to the projected in July, reverberating potent transmission channels from monetary policy to credit and activity.
“This context of discouraging economic activity is associated with restrictive monetary policy, leading to the slowdown of credit. With the basic interest rate by 15% per year, there was already a reduction in the interannual expansion of real credit concessions of about 10.5% in the quarter ended in December 2024 to 2.4% in the quarter ended in July,” says the bulletin.
Economic activity, according to the newsletter, slowed down in the second quarter. On the margin, the pace of growth went from 1.3% in the first quarter to 0.4% in the second, reverberating the drop in the production of the transformation and construction industry and the reduction in the services provided by the public administration.
From the perspective of demand, there was a slowdown in families consumption and retreat in government consumption and investment. As a result, the growth projection for industry GDP was revised from 2% to 1.4% and went 2.1% for the GDP of services.
For Agricultural GDP, the projection went from 7.8% to 8.3%, reflecting higher expected production of corn and cotton and cattle slaughter this year and already considering the impacts of additional tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian exports and the mitigation of these impacts with the Sovereign Brasil Plan.
