Almost three years separate the moment when () had 58 million votes in the 2022 presidential election and his conviction at 27 years in prison.
At the time of defeat, allies tried to convince him to accept the result and become the opposition leader in the country. But he decided to travel to the United States and only returned three months later, when he began to respond to lawsuits and finally sought to incorporate the role of leadership from the right.
Now, condemned, and Bolsonaro leaves a fragmented right as legacy, with the rise of a more radicalized wing and one that seeks to survive his shadow.
He was already ineligible until 2030, for convictions by the Electoral Justice, but the new punishment can – when it would be 107 years old. Nevertheless, the former president refuses to pass the stick in an attempt to maintain his political capital.
The lack of definition makes his electoral estate disputed by at least four right-wing governors and members of his own family, with Rio de Janeiro councilor Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) calling the governors of opportunistic rats and messages from (PL-SP) criticizing Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans).
Condemnation increases uncertainties about pockets. A more pragmatic wing wants to keep PL alliances with the center, is less ideological with said conservative guidelines and calculates the steps to increase the chances of defeating petism next year.
The other group rejects political agreements, defends sanctions to Brazilian authorities, is radically critical to the judiciary and says that Brazil is a dictatorship.
The members of this second wing, today led by Eduardo in the United States, are active by some as more combative and radical than that of the former president himself. The deputy has a distinct scenario reading from his and is more averse to political compositions.
This was evidenced by those that led to their indictment in August. The parliamentarian disagrees with his father’s assessments and defends, among other things, to intensify criticism of the Supreme Court (STF).
At one point, Bolsonaro says: “Forget any criticism of Gilmar [Mendes, ministro do STF]. I’ve been talking to some of the STF. All or almost all show concern for sanctions. “
There are parliamentarians in Brasilia and states that have an alignment to the former president’s son and today, in the corridors, are called “eduarists.” Although he is not expected to return to Brazil, for fear of being arrested, he has already shown interest of being his father’s successor to the presidency and even spoke of leaving the PL and joining another party for this goal.
While in Brazil the former president and part of his allies sought to distance himself from Trump’s tariff, giving the measure to Lula’s foreign policy, Eduardo argued that the US president is concerned about Bolsonaro and the STF’s situation, and that things will only change with the approval of an amnesty.
It was a moment of inflection in pockets this year. Led to the opening of inquiry and subsequent indictment of Eduardo and the father. They were forbidden to speak, and the former president ended an electronic anklet, which began his removal from politics on July 18.
These former president’s allies and supporters speak of the favorable wing movements to find a successor as a betrayal to Bolsonaro. They also argue that he must go to the last moment as a candidate.
On another front, the pragmatic wing near Bolsonaro seeks to create a wide right front to face Lula, but without designing from the former president. Is that of Tarcisio.
Squeezed among criticism of the most radical wings and pressured to maintain more moderate stance, the governor has sought to balance the uncertainty will remain a candidate for reelection in Sao Paulo or the presidency will be held next year.
The indispensable condition to run for Planalto is a declared support from the former president-algo that one wing of his surroundings says it has already occurred, but another says he believes in a more erratic posture of Bolsonaro, as has happened at other times.
These governor’s interlocutors also advocate expensive guidelines for pockets, such as the amnesty to the former president and convicted in the scammer attacks of January 8, 2023, but prefer a project that is not so wide and that does not give him back his political rights. Tarcisio is expected in Brasilia throughout the week to resume the articulation.
The most pragmatic group wants to bring more pockets to the center, as an electoral strategy – are the way it will be the way to expand votes – and survival. The consequence of Bolsonaro’s radicalization, they say, led him to the 27-year-old and three-month conviction by the Supreme Court.
Unlike the most radical wing of pockets, they advocate dialogue with ministers of the Supreme, in an attempt to appease the relationship or even seek agreements – so that it is not clear to whom or what kind of agreement.
For both the most radical and the most pragmatic, there is a consensus that neither group can break with the former president. They rival political and electoral protagonism in the countryside, but without abandoning Bolsonaro.
