Allies of () and members of the federal government point out that from () leaves the way open to a presidential candidacy of the governor of São Paulo, (), against the petista in 2026.
People close to Lula also evaluate that the trial should lead Donald Trump government in the United States to impose a new offensive against Brazil and fear interference from the country in next year’s election.
For petista assistants, the paving of the Tarcísio route to the candidacy for the Planalto took place from the days before the decision of the Supreme Court (STF). Tarcísio met with leaders to defend the amnesty vote to involved in the scammers and.
Governors evaluate that Tarcisio has fulfilled a script outlined with Bolsonaro himself, seeking support for his campaign to the Planalto Palace. The two talked during a recent visit from the governor to the former president. In the following days, Centrão expanded the defense of Tarcisio’s name as a candidate.
In meetings, Lula himself has been repeating that Tarcisio will be the candidate of Centrão next year. He emphasizes a change in the governor’s behavior, who was willing to be partnerships with the federal government in the early years of his term. An ally of the president says he believes that from now on, he will not participate more than acts next to Lula.
Given this scenario, petistas say that the governor will increasingly nationalize his speech and that it is necessary to work to wear out the image of Tarcisio.
The signs of consolidation of his candidacy caused the PT to change the strategy to, for example. Last week, the party decided to bring a campaign with criticism of the governor to a insertion produced exclusively to the state. In the rest of the country, the petista propaganda was destined for the exaltation of the Lula administration.
Next year, the national dispute will influence the government’s strategy for the São Paulo election. The PT wants to set up a strong plate for the Bandeirantes Palace and the two vacancies from São Paulo to the Senate. The idea is to set up a stage that supports Lula’s campaign in the state.
In addition to the names of the vice president () and the minister (farm), the minister (planning) is remembered for the dispute, in her case, for the Senate.
Without Tarcisio in the state election, Lula’s allies evaluate that Alckmin would have a chance to be once again elected governor. Haddad is also mentioned for the vacancy, although he has been discarding the hypothesis.
Lula’s allies also say that with the condemnation and acceleration of the joints around Tarcisio, the PT must analyze the impacts on its alliances to 2026.
Auxiliaries of the president understand that hardly parties of the center today with the petista should support his reelection. The effort will be to attract part of the leaders of these parties and prevent them from formally combining themselves with the opposing candidacy.
In addition, with the condemnation of Bolsonaro, petistas and government allies in Congress recognize the risk of increased pressure for the amnesty project to advance in the legislature.
In the Planalto Palace, the orientation is against this proposal and in favor of one – the assessment that today there would be enough votes for it to be approved.
These allies also say that it is necessary to work so that the Congress agenda does not be paralyzed in the meantime, aiming at the approval of a package of social measures that can help the petista in reelection.
There is also an assessment of members of the government and the President of the Republic himself that the approval of the amnesty would represent a victory of the government of, at a time when launches an offensive against Brazil and imposes a 50% surcharge on Brazilian products.
For Lula’s allies, Bolsonaro’s conviction should lead Trump to impose new sanctions on the country and Brazilian authorities. There is a fear of the breadth of this American offensive, especially with the fear of interference in next year’s elections.
A petista says that, unlike the other elections, there are possibilities for 2026 to contain a factor of internationalization of the dispute, with Trump offensive to secure an ally in the presidency.
This petista says that it is necessary to reinforce international relations, seek other business partners and try to shield the – such that has the front opposition of republican management.
Behind all political calculations, Lula’s allies have been reinforcing the assessment that the result of the trial in Bolsonaro and generals to prison can be considered a historical victory by showing that an attempt to blow against the institutions was punished.
