The government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) faces a delicate crisis with the breakdown of União Brasil, which on Thursday (18) gave his affiliates to deliver the positions they occupy in the Federal Administration.
The decision, unanimously approved by the National Directorate, provides for punishments for party infidelity, including expulsion, for those who fail to comply with the order.
The measure directly reaches the Minister of Tourism, Celso Sabino (Union-PA), licensed deputy appointed by the legend bench in the House. The party also occupies several strategic posts on the Esplanade. Sabino had been negotiating with leaders to avoid leaving, but has not yet commented on the resolution.
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Weight in Congress
With more than 50 deputies and seven senators, União Brasil represents one of the largest benches of the legislature. The rupture threatens the articulation of the Planalto in crucial projects, such as the exemption of income tax for those who earn up to R $ 5,000, tax adjustments and tax reform regulations. Without the support of the acronym, the allied base loses breath in budget impact voting.
The offensive further strengthens the centrão, which already pressures the government for positions and resources, such as the release of more amendments, with the proximity of the electoral agenda.
The landing also reflects the realignment of the subtitle on the electoral board. PP presidents Ciro Nogueira and União Brasil, Antonio de Rueda, have already ruled out Lula in 2026 and advocate the launch of a unique candidacy of the right center.
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União Brasil works the name of the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado, while part of the centrão articulates around Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans-SP), now seen as the most competitive name against the president.
Dilemma
The crack places Lula in front of a dilemma: to give more space to the center to recompose its base or to face the risk of congressional paralysis. The impasse comes at a sensitive moment, less than two years from municipal elections, when several allies should leave positions in March 2026 to dispute municipalities, further reducing the margin of political negotiation.
For the market, instability may concern because it increases uncertainty about the approval of tax measures and public debt control, which are fundamental to maintaining predictability and confidence.
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Without advancement in Congress, the government may lose traction in its economic agenda precisely during the period when it sought to consolidate support for a possible reelection project.
