Faced with the increase in geopolitical tensions, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) and his ministers discussed a new exception to the tax framework to accommodate investments in strategic programs by Armed Forces.
The idea of government is to send to the National Congress a complementary bill R $ 30 billion, distributed throughout six years, of the spending limit.
Money would necessarily be applied in modernization Army, Navy and FAB (Brazilian Air Force) – enabling programs such as Sisfron (Integrated Border Monitoring System), the development of the first Brazilian nuclear submarine and the renewal of the fighter fleet with Swedish Jats Gripen NG.
The matter was debated reserved by the president with ministers Rui Costa (Civil House), Fernando Haddad (Fazenda) and José Múcio (Defense). In the coming days, Lula and his assistants should resume the discussion.
One of the arguments raised in government is that this alternative would be more viable, politically, than PEC 55 – Proposed amendment to the Constitution that would guarantee the Ministry of Defense, every year, a budget equivalent to 2% do PIB.
Presented in 2023, this PEC is locked in the Senate.
One criticism of it is to create a new constitutional binding when the recent mantra, among economists concerned with the growth of public debt and the deterioration of tax indicators, is the need to make budgetary detachments (such as health floors and education).
According to reports made to CNNthe economic team recognizes the need to increase defense investments.
However, it understands that the advance of a reform of the Armed Forces Social Protection System and the End of “Ficta Death” (Payment for families of military personnel expelled from the service or convicted of crimes) must be a counterpart to the eventual exception of the framework.
These two measures were sent to Congress in a public expenses containment package at the end of 2023, but are practically paralyzed in the legislature.
If taken below, the proposal considered in the Planalto Palace would be the sixth exception to the rules of the tax framework in less than three years. The list Includes:
- Payment of precatory;
- Spending arising from floods in Rio Grande do Sul;
- Combat to burning in 2024;
- Refund to the victims of fraud in the INSS;
- Incentives for companies harmed by US tariff.
In the evaluation of Lula’s direct assistants, however, it is necessary to take into account the scrapping of the Armed Forces and the growing difficulty of honoring the planned schedules of strategic defense projects, in a context of global increase in military spending.
According to the prestigious International Institute for Peace Research, headquartered in Stockholm, warlords reached in 2024 the higher level of the last four decades.
There was an increase in 9,4% compared to the previous year. Total expense came to US $ 2.718 trillion. For Sipri, the institute’s English acronym, there is no end in sight for the growing worldwide arms race.
Meanwhile, in Brazil, strategic defense projects suffer with the insufficiency of resources.
Last week, in a debate at the Senate Foreign Relations and National Defense Commission) on PEC 55, the FAB indicated a new change in the schedule
Lieutenant Brigadier Walcyr Josué Araújo, head of the Air Force Staff, presented an updated calendar of deliveries. The last lot, with five aircraft, went to 2032.
So far, the completion of the package was scheduled for 2027. Of the 36 fighters, however, the lieutenant brigadier has signaled that only 16 will have arrived in Brazil within this time.
“We have done successive additive terms. We are today in the 12th, and you see that we already have the prospect of having the last aircraft in 2032,” Araújo told senators.
It is the fault of insufficient resources. “The lack of budgetary predictability causes us not to apply the resources in a totally rational and balanced way in this contract,” said the official.
“We are already investing more than 13% above the initial value due to the need for readjustments and rebellion. This would be equivalent, only with this difference, to purchase six more 36 aircraft originally contracted.”
In June, the CNN showed the
The system, which seeks to increase the surveillance capacity of almost 17 thousand kilometers From borders, it was expected to be concluded in 2021.
Less than 30% were effectively executed and the deadline was migrated to 2039. The last adequacy of the calendar had dragged the Sisfron implementation to 2035, but this adjustment was also unenforceable.
By the end of this year, just less than R $ 3 billion of the necessary R $ 15 billion will have been invested, according to Army data accessed by CNN.
In the navy, the priority is
The budget for the program as a whole (which includes the final stretch of conventional submarines), in addition to the construction of a multipurpose nuclear reactor in Iperó (SP), stabilized at a level of $ 2 billion annually – just or little less.
At the beginning of the program, when Brazil lived an peak of economic growth, it had almost R $ 4 billion per year. Then, during the recession of 2015/2016, there was a drop to about $ 1.5 billion. Then came stabilization. In 2025, he returned to the house of $ 2 billion.
As reported by CNN By Navy officers, despite the high figure, this value would be insufficient to maintain the submarine sea launch schedule the nuclear propulsion in 2034 or 2035.
If the annual investment flow is kept at the current level, the plan would probably go to the end of the next decade, closer to 2040.
Maintaining the schedule of 2034 or 2035 would require, according to admirals heard by CNNan additional contribution of at least R $ 1 billion per year. It is not the only budget threat to Navy programs.
The naval force will deactivate 43 vessels – About 40% of your fleet- until 2028, when they reach the end of their useful life. For now, replacement guarantees are lacking.
