Bag at the heights, dollar downstairs. This has been the mode of operation From the financial market last month, with Ibovespa renewing historical maximum five times and the American border reaching the lowest level in over year.
Faria Lima, however, is not the only one that benefits from the scenario -.
In the last, the currency reached R $ 5.29the lowest value since June 2024. In the month, it accumulates falls of 2.4%; In the year, 14%.
Experts consulted by CNN Money They understand that the moment is conducive to Brazilians who want to again stamp the passport. Continuous devaluation, however, is uncertain.
First of all
Before making decisions about the border, it is important to understand why it is falling.
Since the beginning of August, the financial market in Brazil and the world has anticipated a Interest cut in the United States.
It happened last Wednesday (17), with the Fed (Federal Reserve, Central Bank), leaving them in the range of 4% to 4.25% per year.
As interest previously were at a high level, the US stock market lived an atypical allocation of fixed income investors.
“In developed markets, this type of asset is minority, corresponding to a maximum of 25% of the total,” said Gustavo Spinola, chief strategist at RB Investimentos ,.
With the Fed’s decision, this type of asset becomes less attractive, which makes investors seek appreciation in other markets. The dollars, once confined to gringo government bonds, undergo an emigration.
Good news for Real. With the increase in the supply of dollar in the country, the exchange price drops – so our currency values. It is an auspicious cycle: more offering, more appreciation, more money from outside in order to surf the high of the yellow-green currency.
“With lower interest rates, the remuneration of keeping cash in dollars loses attractiveness and stimulates positions in other theses and economies,” summarizes Paula Zogbi, Nomad’s chief strategist.
Oscillation, no continuous drop
That said, what market experts see for the currency in the future?
Zogbdi sees room for more falls in the short term. Both for the provision of more interest rates in the United States – and – which led “to a more structural movement of institutions, governments and investors towards a diversification of their value reserves,” he says.
The possibility of maintaining Selic at 15% by the beginning of 2026 should also contribute to the movement, with investors taking advantage of the most attractive interest.
In the internal scenario, however, it is cautious. The arrival of the election year adds elements of volatility and uncertainty, besides the, can chase investors and devalue the currency.
Therefore, it is hasty to speak of a “definitive peak”, signals Pedro Ros, CEO of the Capital Reference.
“The tendency is for oscillation, not continuous fall,” he says.
Buy or not, this is the question
Note there: There is no perfect exchange rate. For Brazilians who are thinking of going up to the air and landing on dolaried lands, experts were unanimous: The ideal is to crash position nowtaking advantage of the lowest quotation.
“In addition to the trips to be cheaper, it is extremely advisable for those who want to dolarize some part of the heritage, do immediately,” argues Thiago Calestine, economist and partner at Dom Investimentos.
“Purchase of ticket, travel insurance, hostel, currency you have to take. If you have cash flow, now is the time,” praises Eduardo Campos, Banco Daycoval Bank exchange director.
“The best price is the average rate. This is why, low moments are the best to make a reservation,” he adds.
This is true for those who want to travel now and those who are planning for a trip in the coming months.
All to prevent the consumer “hostage” from a specific quotation, concludes Paula, from Nomad. After all, headache is enough for the experience of Guarulhos airport.
