Things happen. Without noise, but they pass. Spain just solemnize its “overtaking”To France. This advance does not refer to the size of the economy, (GDP growth), to the quality of its public finances (deficit and debt) and the (qualification) on the security or danger of investing in each country (risk premium).
The is the most relevant comparison from and for markets. And of greater impact: it measures the extra cost of a debt issuer (we put Spain or France) on the reference issuer (Germany, which still has the maximum note, the triple A: o AAA). It is computed in basic points (PB): if the premium is 100 bp, it means that a loan in the aforementioned country costs the local creditor a tenth than its colleague of the reference economy.
After the great recession of 2008, France was saved from the crisis of the European sovereign debt, against the rescue suffered by Spain. His worst cousin was 190 bp (November 2011), compared to 650 bp of Spain (July 2012). The shots have been invested. This Thursday, more than in Germany; In France (as in Italy), 82.
Similar to the agencies and improve that of Spain. Fitch (French capital company, benevolent with the hexagon) reduced the Republic of AA- A A+ (11/9). The demanding S&P improves the Spanish from A A+ (12/9). Those who improve are more cheaper; Those who get worse, more expensive.
All that derives from macro data from each country. First, in Triennium 2023-2025, Spanish more than triples to French (multiplies it by 3.37 in the average rhythm), with data from 2023 and 2024 and official forecasts by 2025.
Second, the trajectory of public finances. Spain closed 2024 with a decreasing since 4.59% of 2022 and 3.5% of 2023. France registered 5.8%, climbing 1.1 points since 2022. The Spanish debt was relieved in Spain (to 101.8%, from 101.8% of 2023 and 105.1% of 2022). The French worsened at 113% from the previous 109.8%.
The key reason for overtaking It is that the greatest Spanish growth has generated greater collection, based on a; a certain tax stability; and the impulse of consumption and increasingly, investment (key trend in the future). In the French case, half of the fiscal collapse hangs from the tax sales of Emmanuel Macron: elimination or reduction of taxes to equity, companies and production (Financial Times16/11). And of which prevents reforms (pensions). In eight years of macronista presidency, since 2017, we have been seven prime ministers, almost one per year. In Spain, there has been only one. Data, nothing more.
