Juan Vicente Pérez lives, the oldest man in the world, died at 114.
Although the number of centenaries may be increasing, a new investigation reveals that, statistically, no one who currently lives today should expect to live up to 100 years.
According to, using six different forecasting methods to predict life expectancy rates in 23 high and low mortality countries, the study authors concluded that it is highly unlikely that the average life expectancy of born between 1939 and 2000 reaches this milestone.
According to the study in the magazine Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesthe unprecedented longevity of today’s elderly is largely due to advances in medicine during the early decades of the twentieth century, which resulted in a rapid increase in life expectancy.
Between 1900 and 1938, the average life expectancy increased 0.46 years by generationso those born at the turn of the century could expect to celebrate 62 birthdays, while those born 38 years later could blow 80 candles in their last cake.
And although life expectancy has continued to increase since then, The pace of improvement has slowed downwhich raises doubts about the time that the current population may remain stuck to this life.
Based on their analysis, the study authors suggest that the pace of increasing life expectancy should decrease 37 to 52% by generation between 1939 and 2000.
“In the absence of great discoveries that significantly prolong human life, life hope would not correspond to rapid increases in the early twentieth century, even if adult survival was improving twice as fast as expected,” he said Héctor Pifarré i ArolasAuthor of the study.
“We foresee that people born in 1980 will not live until 100 years old, on average, and none of the cohorts of our study will reach this milestone,” added the José AndradeCo -author.
According to their data, the investigators claim that this decline is mainly due to the fact that the previous increases in life hope were caused by rapid improvements in child mortality ratesas pediatric medicine advanced in the early twentieth century.
However, with child mortality currently so low in all developed countries, it is unlikely to once again see an increase in life expectancy like what happened in the last century.
Globally, more than half of the slowdown is explained by mortality trends among children under five, while more than two thirds are explained by mortality trends among people under 20.
The study authors point out that medical advances that change the world can always make mortality rates deviate from the norm.
In other words, the discovery of a Cfor cancer could probably distort the datamaking the average life expectancy approach the 100 -year -old brand.
Despite this pessimistic prognosis, researchers insist that “the results of this study do not intend to be interpreted as proof for or against a biological limit of age for human life.”
After all, life expectancy continues to increase – though not as quickly as before – and the authors say there is no reason for this not to continue.
Teresa Oliveira Campos, Zap //
