Members of the political world, especially of pockets, evaluate that the Supreme Court (STF) is likely to emerge in candidates’ speeches in 2026, while Supreme Ministers see a year of turmoil for the judiciary, with the possible increase in attacks.
All this thanks to (), who was condemned, alongside allies and military, for leading attempted coup, something unheard of in the history of Brazil. Already under house arrest after breach of precautionary measures, the penalty of the former president of 27 years and three months can still be fulfilled in closed regime.
Although the conviction was foreseen, she raised the pressure on the right, which now dreams of delivering the former president criminally, regaining the Planalto Palace and reaching the majority in the two houses of Congress to impose defeats on the judiciary. With this, they must drag the for the electoral debate in 2026.
Political scientists see the movement of recent weeks in favor of amnesty and clash with the Supreme Court as an effect of the right dispute by the inheritance of the vote and the support of Bolsonaro. They make the caveat, however, that to win votes from the center and more moderate center voter, the step is risky.
They also bet that the theme will hardly be explored in the presidential campaign, but by Bolsonarist candidates in the House and Senate.
In Congress, the anti-STF agenda will be a priority of right-wing candidates, especially. Like the Sheet He showed, “to have more powers than the president himself,” and candidates who postulate their support should support the impeachment of STF ministers, especially Alexandre de Moraes.
Among leftist candidates, there is still doubt whether it will be possible to take the court out of the electoral debate. This is not the discussion that parliamentarians and members of leftist parties want to have, but if the right is successful in guiding it, it will be necessary to face it.
Pre-candidates on the right, in turn, eager to inherit the ballonarist estate at the polls, find themselves in the dilemma of conquering the most radical electorate and at the same time not closing the doors with the most moderate groups.
The condemnation of the group’s main political leader, Bolsonaro, has made all right-wing governors declare support for the amnesty project in Congress, who could deliver the former president of jail.
He also made Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), from São Paulo, not only enter the political articulation for the text to advance in the House, but climb the tone against Moraes in the last demonstration of 7 September.
The governor, seen as more moderate, called the tyrant magistrate. Assistants classified the statements as an outburst, others as a gesture for militancy, but all wings of Bolsonarism applauded the probable successor of the former president’s estate.
The defense of amnesty – wide, general and unrestricted or through penalties – has become a condition for parties to integrate right -wing that seek to articulate to 2026 with the governors, especially around Tarcisio. The theme came at a Dinner of the Brazil PP-Union Federation last month.
Among the Supreme Ministers, it is precedent that the election year will be turbulence for the judiciary, with the possible increase in attacks. This is one of the reasons used by Moraes and other members of the Court for.
Part of the ministers accounts for the possible increase in the Senate Bolsonarist bench. The election of a conservative majority is expected, with about 10 to 12 radicals.
The majority reading in the Supreme Court is that even a change in the composition of the Senate should not cause the impeachment of ministers, as suggested by the former president, because of the Centrão Parliamentarians’ force-these, yes, with greater traffic in the judiciary.
Political scientist Carolina de Paula, who coordinates the project “Monitor of Public Debate” of the Institute of Social and Political Studies of UERJ (Rio de Janeiro State University), evaluates that the anti-STF agenda should appear more in the campaigns of candidates for federal deputy and, to a lesser extent, to the Senate.
In the case of candidates for president and governor, she sees as unlikely that this clash -incisive speech with the court and defense of the impeachment of ministers will appear. “More radicalized positions in this regard, to close the Supreme Court, against ministers, cursing ministers, is not a stance that tends to please the right -wing and less radical center voter,” he says.
For her, Tarcisio’s conduct in recent weeks in favor of amnesty and with criticism of ministers would have been a very risky maneuver in terms of public opinion. She believes, however, that it would be something fleeting. “The moment he becomes Tarcisio, the candidate, I believe he changes his posture.”
Also political scientist André Borges, professor at UnB (University of Brasilia) and organizer of the book “To understand the new Brazilian right” does similar analysis.
“What has happened in recent weeks reflects a little the division that exists on the right today, which is basically a dispute to know who will be with Bolsonaro’s electoral estate,” he says, who sees Tarcisio’s posture, in favor of amnesty, a wave of the former president’s more radical base.
For Borges, on the other hand, it is a movement that is at risk, because, to attract the right -wing voter who is not a pocket, Tarcisio cannot pass on the image that it would be a mere political post representing Bolsonaro.
As for the anti-STF agenda in the electoral debate, he points out as a pocket flag that should be mobilized by federal deputy candidates, and possibly with regional variation, depending on the level of support for former President Bolsonaro or Lula across the country. “You can’t elect a president with this kind of speech,” he says.
