The Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) released on Tuesday (23) reinforced the need to keep the Selic rate at a significantly high level for a prolonged period. The document, which details the last decision to keep interest rates at 15% per year, presented a less restrictive tone compared to the previous statement.
According to André Muller, chief economist of Az Quest, the document shows that the economic scenario has evolved according to Copom expectations throughout the year. Despite the initial risks of more resistant economic activity and high inflation, growth is aligned with projections, marking a new phase of the monetary tightening cycle.
The labor market remains as a point of attention to the Central Bank. Muller points out that while credit dependent sectors show slowdown, those related to consumption without financing remains resistant, supported by a still high salary.
The Minutes indicates that the risks to economic activity have decreased, including those related to fiscal policy and credit measures. The document suggests that initiatives such as the new payroll line had a lower impact than initially provided.
As for future projections, although the reduction in Selic is not explicitly mentioned in the document, the projections incorporated by the Committee, based on Focus research, indicate a lower interest level by 2024. Monetary policy maintains its conservative posture, with the prospect that six months with restrictive interest rates should contribute to the convergence of inflation.
