The incidence of rainfall in Brazil improved the prospects for the next crop of Brazilian coffee. With the expectation of more productivity in the largest producer and exporter of Commodity, the price of Arabica-the most consumed type in large consumer markets-fell to the lowest value in a month on Tuesday (23) on the New York Stock Exchange.
Last Monday (22), it rained in the southeast, the main producing area of arabica coffee in Brazil, and more rains are expected in the region in the rest of the week. There is also a forecast of precipitation consistent from the second week of October.
The recent incidence of precipitation and the forecast of more rainfall during the coffee flower period, which usually occurs in early spring, in September and October, is a positive – and decisive – indicative for the productivity of the 2025/26 crop.
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And a good harvest is seen as a remedy for the recovery of global stocks, today at historically low levels thanks to climate problems that have shaken the last four crops in Brazil and other producing countries, such as Colombia.
In an interview with The Agribiz last week, Gustavo Foz, founder of the cultivation, said that if the next crop is unharmed of the weather, “it will probably have a large productivity and will help to recompose the worldwide deficit of inventory.”
Fernando Maximiliano, Stonex’s Coffee Market Intelligence Manager, endorsed the idea of a liability in stocks, and said it was decisive to rain over the next six weeks – including this – for good flowering.
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“The development so far was good, but it is a critical step. If frustrating, even if time improves later, the loss is irreversible,” he said.
Rain consolidates from October
On Monday (22), it rained abundantly in central-south, according to Marco Antonio dos Santos, agrometeorologist at Rural Climate. “It did not rain enough in the interior of São Paulo, but the cold front advanced, and the volumes were intense in some regions,” he added.
According to him, the forecast for this Tuesday and Wednesday is that the rains will gain intensity in the coffee regions, arriving in the interior of São Paulo.
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With this, the coffee quote fell in New York. Future contracts for December registered a 4.1% drop compared to the last closure before the rains, on Friday (19), reaching the lowest value in one month.
Precipitation should continue throughout the week, says Santos, from Rural Climate. “At the beginning of next week, a new cold front advances through Rio Grande do Sul, gradually rising and gaining intensity. At the turn of the month, the forecast is more rain throughout the center.”
According to the agrometeorologist, the tendency is that in the first week of October the rains will regularize. “The expectation is that the rainfall regime will definitely settle from the second week of October onwards,” he says.
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This is an important indicative for producers who are waiting for the precipitation to make the planting: “Those who have received good rainfall in the last 72h and have the ground structured can continue to plant. And who has not received, expects a little because the rains have been coming.”
A light at the end of the tunnel
In addition to rainfall in Brazil, the coffee market carefully followed an apparent truce in business relations between the country and the United States.
During his statement at the UN General Assembly in New York, US President Donald Trump said he was briefly spoke with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and had an excellent chemistry with the Brazilian agent.
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Trump also said he will meet Lula next week, generating expectation for a trade agreement that partially or totally softens the 50% surcharge announced by Americans about all imports in Brazil.
So far, coffee has not been included by the US government on the exemption list. For the US in August and could end the competitiveness of Brazilian coffee – according to Cecafe, the Board of Coffee Exporters in Brazil.
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