BC (Central Bank) revised the GDP growth projection (Gross Domestic Product) from 2025 to 2%. In the previous report, it was 2.1%. The projection appears in the monetary policy report released on Thursday (25).
“The slight reduction stems from the still uncertain effects of the increase in import tariffs by the United States of America (US), as well as signs of moderation of economic activity in the third quarter,” the report says.
According to the monetary authority, the effects of the moderation of economic growth and the reflexes of the fare in Brazil were partially compensated by the most favorable forecasts for agriculture, influenced by the record crop.
The extractive industry – a reflection of the elevation in oil production – also collaborated to minimize impacts.
On the other hand, there was a reduction in industry growth projections and stability in the estimate for the service sector.
See the projections of 2025 by sector:
* Agriculture: rose from 8% to 9%;
* Industry: fell from 1.9% to 1%;
* Services: remained at 1.8%.
In the second quarter, GDP grew 0.4%, after a 1.3% increase in the previous quarter.
2026
For next year, economic growth of 1.5%is projected. The forecast considers the maintenance of monetary policy in the field
Restrictive, the low idle level of production factors, the perspective of slowdown in the global economy and the absence of agricultural impulse observed in 2025.
See the projections of 2026 by sector:
* Agriculture: 1%;
* Industry: 1.4%;
* Services: 1.5%.
According to the BC, the strong base of comparison should limit agriculture growth in 2026. The record grain crop in 2025 had very favorable weather conditions, which may not be repeated in 2026.
In addition, the report also points out that increased relative prices of pesticides and fertilizers tend to reduce their use in the field, a factor that can have a negative impact on productivity.
In livestock, moderation is projected in the slaughter of cattle, reflection of the growing
Female participation in the slaughter of recent years. The scenario can reduce the availability of animals.
Inflation
The BC projects that the IPCA (National Consumer Price Index) end 2025 by 4.8%. If the scenario is confirmed, there will be non -compliance with the goal, which is 3%, with tolerance interval of up to 4.5%.
The report estimates that the probability of popping the goal by 2025 is 71%. To make inflation converge to the goal, the BC maintains Selic, the basic interest rate, at a higher level.
For 2026, inflation is expected to be 3.6%.
