Since February, Ukraine has launched two waves of including refineries y Oil ships. The second wave, started in August, still continues. These blows, to intensify, could mark a conflection point in the conflicthe warns Francesco SisciProfessor of European Policy and Director of the Appia Institute.
The analyst who, in addition to weakening Moscow’s war effort, these attacks could also reconfigure the world energy market and open New opportunities for the United States: “I could find a loaf of hope in Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities, promoting the US oil industry,”.
However, warn, “Moscow could counterattack with hybrid strategies that could destabilize some EU countries, such as Italy”.
Succulent opportunity for the US
The reduction of Moscow’s export capacity due to Ukrainian attacks would not only affect their war finances, but also would force powers such as India, Türkiye or even China to diversify their energy sources. At the same time, the expert remembers that alternative suppliers are scarce, while Iran and Venezuela are in the black lsita in Washington.
“Iran faces the threat of a new attack by Israeland one Powerful American fleet is off the Venezuelan coastthreatening to overthrow the anti -state regime of Caracas, “says Sisci. This leaves the US, with its powerful industry of Hydraulic billingas one of the few actors capable of filling that void.
“Beyond the intentions of any leader, such as the president Donald Trumpfrom the United States, or Vladimir Putinfrom Russia, this perspective Change the dynamics of the conflict“, he says. USA could go from seeing war as an economic threat to considering it a strategic opportunity: “The American oil industry could have a particular interest in defending Ukraine of Russia and its”.
Hybrid war threat in Europe
But this advance also implies risks, as Russia could respond with a hybrid climb: “Drones and aircraft have violated NATO and US Air Spaces, and the “Sisci alert. Now, Moscow could be preparing a broader confrontation, especially pointing to vulnerable countries.
“Italy could be an easy target”precise, citing your economic weight within the EU and the Presence of pro -Russian parties both in the Government (the League) and in the opposition (Five Star Movement). “Proportic activists in Italy are usually also pro -corruse,” he adds, in reference to recent violent protests.
“It is not known with certainty how Europeans or NATO will respond, if they will reinforce their defensive measures or doubt. In any case, the war in Ukraine has intensified, raising a new challenge: face Russia or yield. This situation also limits China’s options, still leaving Less margin of political flexibility“The analyst concludes.
