O shutdown In the US government began at midnight on Wednesday (1st), after the US Congress could not form a majority to approve the 2026 fiscal year budget.
With the stoppage,
The country’s economy should feel direct effects on the dismissal of civil servants and the interruption of the payments of those who are still active.
During the last stoppage, which occurred in the first term of Trump, the 35 days of shutdown led to losses of US $ 3 billion For the US economy, according to the congressional budget office.
The impact should not be limited, however, to US borders. THE shutdown It can also be felt around the world, generating effects – as it has already done.
In terms of exchange, the dollar tends to value itself – at least at first. This is what Cristiane Fourtholi, chief economist of Ouribank expects.
The economist points out that the moment of uncertainty tends to direct investments to assets considered safer, such as the US currency.
In Fourthrooli’s perception, however, if the market sees the stoppage as a sign of “political defunctionality,” this could weigh against US assets and lead part of investors to diversify in other currencies.
“I think Real tends to suffer at first, following the aversion to global risk, but the impact can be moderate if there is active positive flow from exports via price of commodities“, ponders.
Already Beto Saadia, director of investments at Nomos, sees the unfavorable situation for the American asset. The justification is that a GDP Retraction (Gross Domestic Product), caused by lower domestic consumption coupled with high debt level can lead to a “greater escape of money”.
“You have again a continuation of a trend that has been extending since the beginning of the year, which is the devaluation of the dollar compared to the rest of the world.”
Brazilian companies may also feel the effects on the credit environment, as reported by Richard Ionescu, CEO of the Iox Group. This is because a possible appreciation of the US currency, coupled with global interest pressed, make the cost of catchment more expensive.
“This reduces companies ‘maneuvering margin and increases investors’ selectivity. On the other hand, it reinforces the attractiveness of instruments as Fidcswhich offer predictability and protection in the midst of international uncertainty, “says Ionescu.
US impact
Nomad’s chief strategist, Paula Zogbi, explains that the act is “relatively common” in the US and does not usually have major effects if the duration is short.
She understands, however, that there is an aggravating this time –
“With Shutdown, the data can be postponed, leaving the federal reserve temporarily in the dark regarding the variable that justified the first interest cut of 2025: the deceleration of the labor market,” he explains.
Zogbi considers “natural” that the absence of the data can lead to the realization of recent profits in the US market, which can lead to Nova York bags remain.
As shutdown increases the duration, according to Andressa Durão, a wing economist.
“The impact falls on public officials, holding purchases and investments until they receive their salaries. Economists estimate -0.1% of GDP losses per week, on average,” he says.
