The author is a Ukrainian publicist.
The Ukrainians hoped that the attack of Russian drones on Poland would become an impulse that will force NATO to cross the Declarations and the neighbors of Ukraine will force more resources to mobilize more resources for our support. It is here, the awakening of Central Europe begins. At least that’s how it seemed. But it happened almost the opposite. The attack turned out not to be a catalyst of unity, but a new dividing line.
In neighboring countries, a wave of conspiracy theories has risen: “This is a provocation by Ukraine”, “This is a trap for the West”, “it is necessary to negotiate with Moscow”. The same arguments that Kremlin propaganda have been pushing for years have now become part of public discourse in Central Europe.
Potential for a new disaster
We have already experienced this in Europe. When Hitler demanded Sudetenland in 1938, in many European capitals, politicians and journalists were ready to explain that the Czechs themselves are said to have provoked “injustice” to the German minority. And the louder the German threats, the more serious the accusations against Prague were.
The recognition of the aggressor as a rational fellow was at that time of Europe World War II. Today, when drones fall in Poland and Romania, and some politicians of these countries blame Kiev, not Moscow, we see how the same reconciliation logic is repeated. With the same result, because understanding of fear in Central Europe only provokes Putin to new aggressive acts.
The Balkans had a similar experience. West attempts to interpret the aggression of the then Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic as a “internal conflict”, finding compromises with a dictator, unwillingness to intervene – all led to Srebrenica, the greatest mass murder in Europe since World War II.
And even then Milosevic was invited to talk about the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina in Dayton. The results of these agreements are also well known: they led to the endless crisis around Kosovo and the non -viable state that Western diplomats and politicians created together with Milosevic.
And now that shahids appear over Poland or Romania, any attempt to pretend that this “is not our war,” it carries the potential for a new disaster. Like the belief that a person whose soldiers murdered in Buč is able to offer the world a sustainable way of reconciliation.
Ukraine does not offer theory but a plan for Europe
NATO drones are just the tip of the iceberg. The real attack is directed against trust within companies: between parties and governments, between people and the army. Kremlin knows that chaos and suspicion will destroy Europe faster than missiles.
The fragmented and divided region is easier to manage one by one. Especially when politicians from the far -right or extreme left -wing camps come to power in European countries who are primarily interested in maintaining their own power – even through compromises with Moscow and willingness to sacrifice the interests of their neighbors.
Therefore, today Ukraine is not only the victim of aggression, but also the bearer of the only realistic agenda for Central Europe: integration into the EU, creating a good neighborhood belt, a safety system based on solidarity, not fear. Ukraine does not offer the theory, but the survival plan for the whole region.
War can be a moment of renewal for the West
However, this may not be enough without the main actor – the United States. Europeans can argue, hesitate, count losses from sanctions or excuses from energy addiction, but only Washington can give a tone and turn fear into determination. So it was after 1945 and so it should be now.
America and Europe must understand that Shahids over Poland and Romania are not a local inconvenience, but a test of the viability of transatlantic solidarity. If the reaction is half -sized again, Russia will go further. If the answer is decisive, this war could become the moment of renewal for the West, the moment of returning strength and trust in collective security.
The only question is whether there will be enough determination to perceive attacks not as a “Ukrainian problem”, but as our own future? And are the neighbors at the crossroads ready to choose the way of solidarity instead of fear?
* The material has prepared the Institute of Central European Strategy with the support of the European Union within the Initiative We are entering the EU together. The material represents the opinions of authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.
