An academic study warns that the end of immigration in Portugal would have serious consequences for the sustainability of public accounts. According to the news portal Zap.eaiou, without the entry of new immigrants, the tax burden would rise from the current 35.2% to 43.1% of GDP, forcing each Portuguese taxpayer to pay an average of 1,700 euros a year in taxes.
Conclusions result from a study by researchers from the new school of Business and Economics and the University of Stockholm, entitled “The Costs of Building Walls”. The work analyzes the impact of immigration on the budgetary sustainability of the eurozone and reveals that Portugal is one of the most dependent countries of this flow.
According to the authors, closing the doors of immigration would significantly aggravate the necessary fiscal effort by each taxpayer to maintain balanced public finances. Instead of an adjustment of 2.9 percentage points of GDP by 2100, the Portuguese effort would shoot 10.8 points, one of the highest among single currency countries.
Aging and less active population
The main factor behind this projection is demographic. Portugal, like much of Europe, has faced the double challenge of low birth and increased average life expectancy. This combination translates into less active population to contribute to the system and more public spending with pensions and health care.
In this context, immigration has worked as a damper, helping to balance the accounts. Without this contribution, the country would see its fiscal load firing, placing it among the member states with higher pressure on taxpayers, according to the same source.
Young people who contribute more and spend less
According to researchers, the positive impact of immigration is directly related to the age of immigrants. On average, they are younger than the resident population, which means that they contribute to state coffers through taxes and social contributions, while resorting to less pensions and health services.
In the eurozone, calculations point to a positive balance of immigrants equivalent to 0.57% of potential GDP. The native population has a negative balance of 0.62%, reflecting the costs of aging.
Projections until the end of the century
The study projections indicate that if the current pace of entries are maintained, the non -native population in the eurozone could reach 25% by 2025 and 50% in 2100. Such evolution shows that demographic and economic sustainability will increasingly depend on immigration and its descendants.
In the case of Portugal, the effect is even more expressive. While in the European average the difference between whether or not immigration is equivalent to 2.3 percentage points of GDP, in Portuguese territory this difference rises to 7.9 points.
Direct impact on the Portuguese pocket
Translated into numbers, the scenario means that if immigration were eliminated, a 30 -year -old Portuguese taxpayer would have to pay another 1,700 euros a year in taxes. In the eurozone average, this value would be about 845 euros annually, according to the source mentioned above.
A European issue with a strong impact in Portugal
Although the study reveals that immigration is relevant throughout the eurozone, Portugal stands out as one of the countries where the effects of its absence would be more serious. According to the the budgetary cost of aging in Europe is estimated at 14 percentage points of GDP and can rise to 16.3 points without immigration. In Portugal, this difference is much more pronounced.
The investigation makes it clear that, without immigration, the tax effort required by a taxpayer would be one of the highest in the region, reinforcing the importance of this phenomenon for the balance of public accounts.
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