Renato Grandmont, Investment Director of Morgan Stanleyhe highlighted, in an exclusive interview with CNN Moneythat the impact of the US government shutdown on the financial market has so far been null.
Grandmont noted that long-term interest rates follow falling as US bags go up. This Thursday (2), including.
He states, above all, that Morgan Stanley has “a very optimistic, positive, positive perspective for the United States.
For him, the impact of Shutdown is more political than economic. The point of attention you get up is to “how long we will have government closed and solutions to reopen”.
“, […] The government is looking as an opportunity to reduce spending. […] Having voted for Shutdown may be shot in the foot for the Democrats if they have people being faced, “he said.
The expert points out that the country is “important structural changes”, pointing to the prospect of falling interest rates and as potential growth engines for the US in the coming years.
The project generated controversy, mainly due to the tax waivers that implies US public accounts. However, it is precisely because the spending package reduces the country’s corporate rates that Grandmont sees a potential to move the US economy.
“A monetary policy with downward interest rates and a fiscal policy that should help investment in the United States, where it is already very strong in artificial intelligence, should probably help not only stabilize the economic growth rate, but can, for 2027 and further, improve growth rate,” he said.
In addition, it points out that: the bank expects $ 500 billion to be collected, the equivalent of almost 1.9% of the US GDP (Gross Domestic Product).
As for the interest scenario, he pointed out that the trend is falling not only in the US – where rates should fall up to 3% at the end of 2026 – but in the world.
For Brazil, Morgan Stanley’s estimate is that Selic will reach 11.5% at the end of next year.
Brazil
Regarding the Brazilian scenario, Grandmont evaluates that “Brazil’s growth rate should be much higher than it is.”
“Brazil today is a country more dependent on China, […] A country that has a very high level of poverty, should have an industrial policy of 20/30 years, not change of government and changes. A tourism policy where Brazilian coasts could be attracting public from the United States and Europe, “he said.
“There is a great potential for the country, but in some areas this potential is not being explored. Brazil needs a long -term industrial policy, which should lead to stand out with a growth rate of 6%, 7%, 8%per year.”
