“The 20 -point plan to end the war in Gaza is all the Israelis dreamed – even fantasizing. Sometimes it looks more like a list of demands that diplomatic commitments” (Roy Schwartz, senior editor of the Haaretz newspaper). “Netanyahu got almost everything I wanted, thanks to Trump” (Mohamad Bazzi, a journalism professor at New York University). The two are mistaken: if applied, the plan would dissolve the genocide utopia of the great Israel.
The easy bet is in the failure of the plane, because: a) almost everything ends in disaster in the Holy Land; b) Its generic character requires complex negotiations at each step, opening the doors for Netanyahu and the sabotage maneuvers. However, those who are in the business of political analysis, not in betting, need to recognize the main one: the US has returned, at least on role, to the principle of peace in two states.
Netanyahu took over the program of the extremist wing of his office, which preaches the ethnic cleaning of and the burial of the idea of a Palestinian state. Trump boosted this program by outlines the vision of the “riviera of”.
In a turn of 180 degrees, however, his plan states the right of Palestinians to live in Gaza and their right to an independent state. None of this is the invention of the current US President: they are proposals presented in the past by the Biden government and enrolled in a recent sketch formulated by Macron along with the Saudis.
Trump’s turn was triggered by Doha’s bombing by Israel. Gulf countries benefit from US strategic protection. If this protection loses value, they will tend to look for another protector – this is China. Not coincidentally, from the White House, Netanyahu sent his apologies to the Prime Minister of Qatar. The vanity, Trump’s largest compass, plays a protagonist role: the American president, who dreams of the Nobel Peace Nobel, placed himself in Chairman of the Peace Council, general supervision body of the plan.
Netanyahu would say no, if I could. He said no to Biden, for he knew his interlocutor would never abandon Israel. In front of Trump, you only know that anything can happen. The unprecedented international isolation of the Jewish state forbids him to play with Russian roulette with the US government. For this reason, he tries to reinterpret the plan, falsely suggesting that he does not contain the promise, at the end of the rainbow, state self-determination. But the success of his sabotage would require a negative of Hamas, the usual tacit partner.
Hamas is on the crossroads. Its exiled leaders include accepting the plan, as they are captive of Qatar, which operates along with Trump. On the other hand, the leaders in Gaza, who control the fate of Israeli hostages, tend to refuse it, as disarmament would extinguish their political influence. A rejection would reopen the scenario of ethnic cleaning, with Trump’s beneficial. Its conditional yes shows a complete lack of options.
Reasons left for Palestinian objections. There are no firm guarantees on Israeli withdrawal. The Peace Council and the International Stabilization Force would configure a new protectorate. The “believable path” towards the Palestinian state appears as a mere statement of intent. Hamas shares with the Netanyahu government an absolute opposition to peace in two states. Trump’s plan corner the two sister enemies.
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