Brazil has stopped occupying a prominent space on the United States agenda in recent days, due to the focus of the White House in the budget crisis that threatens partially to stop the government and priority conferred by President Donald Trump to the peace plan for the Gaza Strip. The evaluation of analysts and interlocutors of the Lula government heard by the Globo This scenario, even temporary, can interfere with preparations for the expected conversation between Trump and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, announced by the US leader during the UN General Assembly meeting in New York about ten days ago.
According to people involved with the theme in Brasilia, the budget issue should be resolved in the coming days. The peace plan may have a brief unfolding, as the Palestinian group Hamas, which controls Gaza, said it will free the Israeli hostages and deliver Gaza, but wants to discuss other terms of the proposal with Trump.
Analysts point out that change reflects not only the centrality of domestic disputes, but also a redirection of the external priorities of the Republican Administration. The meeting between the two mandates, which may be by telephone, video conferencing or on the sidelines of the Southeast Asian Nations Association (Asean), lost traction in the face of overlap of more urgent themes on the Washington Agenda.
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– The US government is focused on this and all the administration monitors as the stoppage impacts the state, including studies on the dismissal of employees and relocation of military forces. In foreign policy, Trump aims at the peace proposal to the Middle East. Brazil has left the foreground in recent days – says Lucas Martins, professor of history of the United States and global studies at Temple University in Philadelphia.
Lula government members observe, however, that leaving US aims should not be considered bad for Brazil. In the words of an interlocutor, we need to be out of the radar of those who bought the speech by Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) within the State Department and the White House, encouraging the applications of sanctions against Brazilian citizens, because of the lawsuit against his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, in the Supreme Court (STF).
For Dawisson Belém Lopes, professor of political science at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Brazil is no longer the political priority of Trump. He points out that Brasilia has resisted well to Washington’s initial thrusts, which should lead the White House to mobilize other instruments.
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– On the side of Brazil, nor is there a sense of urgency. We will not shy away to talk, but the damage inflicted by the US is well delimited. They are more sectoral (in foreign trade) and individual (use of magnitsky law) than properly nationals – he says.
Lopes points out that this scenario is also negative for Eduardo, who has been living in the US since March this year. Son number 03 of the former president got the White House to position himself against the Lula administration and, especially, the Brazilian judiciary.
Among the subjects that will guide the dialogue between Lula and Trump, the main one will be the US tariff – with 50% surcharge on Brazilian products – and sanctions to citizens of the country, including STF Minister Alexandre de Moraes, due to Bolsonaro treatment. These points, considered sensitive by the Government of Brazil, depend on political advancement in Washington to get out of stagnation.
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Professor of International Relations at the University of Brasilia (UnB), Roberto Goulart Menezes points out that, on the other hand, Brazil did not leave the “negative agenda” with the US.
He recalls that the US commercial representative investigates the country for alleged unfair practices related to deforestation, corruption, trade agreements with other markets, high products from products such as ethanol and large American internet companies. They do not even escape Pix as a means of payment and 25 de Março Street in São Paulo. The process is being conducted based on Section 301 of the US Trade Law.
– As USTR’s investigation is underway based on section 301, I understand that Brazil, unfortunately, has not left the negative US agenda. The long -awaited meeting between Trump and Lula continues to be prepared and may have some effect on the exorbitant tariffs imposed on Brazil. It is noteworthy that the position of the Brazilian government is striking regarding the conflict in the Gaza Strip and on that theme the Trump administration is being pressured, even by closer allies such as the United Kingdom. Budgetary difficulty should be resolved in a few weeks and, therefore, is not something that tends to occupy Trump for a long time – he says.
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The US government turned its attention almost exclusively to the possibility of a new shutdown, caused by the lack of agreement in Congress. To face the risk, the White House has determined that all organs closely monitor the effects of the state operation. Studies are underway that encompass from the suspension of services and layoffs from servers to cuts in strategic areas.
Among the concerns is the eventual relocation of military forces if the tax impasse is prolonged. According to the American press, Pentagon sources confirm that contingency plans have already been prepared to ensure the maintenance of strategic bases, although there is a risk of damage to routine operations.
