After articulating the amnesty PL in Congress, promising pardon to Jair Bolsonaro and calling Minister Alexandre de Moraes of the Supreme Court (STF), Tyran in an electric trio on Paulista Avenue – three movements seen by allies and opponents as positions of a likely candidate for president – the governor of Sao Paulo, Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans) His speeches by repeating that he will compete for reelection next year. The movement, however, also generates a “ripple effect”, which has been having a choice for its eventual succession in state management.
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Tarcisio’s latest public statement in the line that will compete in reelection was given last Monday, leaving the condominium where Bolsonaro is serving house arrest in Brasilia. The meeting had created the expectation that the former president, who is ineligible, could immediately endorse the governor’s national candidacy, which did not occur-although Bolsonaro has already admitted to the reserved allies, which accepts a postulation of Tarcisio to the Presidency of the Republic.
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The possibility of Bolsonaro sacrament the choice is well, well-founded by Centrão leaders, who seek to accelerate the negotiations and define the candidate on the right before the end of the year. Meanwhile, a long list of stakeholders in a definition of Tarcisio’s future is waiting for the decision, starting with the “line of right governor candidates from Sao Paulo to Osasco”, as summarizes an important ally of the former minister.
In a scenario without Tarcisio in the São Paulo race, there are many names that appear as possible alternatives for the government dispute. The list includes the mayor of São Paulo, Ricardo Nunes (MDB), the president of the Legislative Assembly of São Paulo (Alesp), André do Prado (PL), PSD president Gilberto Kassab, Secretary of Security Guilherme Derrite (PP) and Deputy Governor Felicio Ramuth (PSD).
Electoral strategy
Part of the allies believes that Tarcisio’s retreat is strategic and aims to stop the attacks that depart from both the left and pockets, especially the wing represented by federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL). Fusted because of the amnesty’s tariff and articulation, Tarcisio would not only be repeating the tactic of comings and goings that have been marking the entire term, but also testing the pros and cons run in Sao Paulo or the president in 2026.
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“All the articulation he does is someone who is preparing to be a candidate for president.” When this crisis inside the pockets bursts, and there is even more division, Tarcisio will appear as the most appropriate figure – evaluates political scientist José Álvaro Moisés of the University of São Paulo (USP), in reference to the Racha on the right over the choice of a name to represent the field.
One of the pros for trying a reelection is his most favorable position in electoral surveys. The latest Genial/Quaest survey about the state dispute, released in August, showed Tarcisio with 43% of voting intentions. Tarcísio’s closest name is Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), former governor, who marked 21%.
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Already in the September round of the presidential race survey, Quaest shows President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) ahead of all potential opponents, including Tarcisio. In first -round scenarios against the governor, the petista scores 35% and 40%, against 17% and 20% of the rival. Despite the crisis of recent popularity, Lula has achieved a positive wave with the discourse of “national sovereignty” and began to demonstrate resilience to the political environment.
– Politics is very determined by the circumstances. I would say that if the election were today, Tarcisio would not be a candidate, but the election is not today – says political scientist Carlos Melo of Insper, who sees as a decisive factor of the choice of the incumbent. – Being a candidate and losing the presidential election, letting out the mandate in Sao Paulo, means ending his political career.
A secretary who knows the governor well states that the definition for reelection, besides more “comfortable” and “easy”, would make way for Tarcisio to leave his mark as a manager by delivering subway and train lines, the endless Rodone and also the government’s new administrative headquarters in downtown São Paulo, and “stamps” the first governor’s mark to achieve the definitive removal of Cracolândia. However, for this same secretary, the “sealed horse only passes once” cannot be disregarded, as the chance may not be repeated if it comes in the future, another competitive name on the right.
