Commenting on the exchange rate movement, the president of the BC also mentioned the ‘malaise rate’, which adds the level of unemployment and the level of inflation-and should end 2025 at the best level of the historical series
The president of , mentioned on Monday (6) that the appreciation of the real in recent months is one of the explanations for there was a more evident disinflation in goods than in services. According to Galipolo, part of this exchange of the exchange rate derives from the overall devaluation of the But it is necessary to recognize that the real has performed better than some of its peers.
“Mexico, for example, has not suffered acute devaluation of their currency as we suffered in the last quarter of last year and this year the real has been better than their peers, on average. So this currency appreciation explains why we are seeing faster goods and a still slow deficulation in services,” explained the BC president, who attended the Foundation Monday FHC, in São Paulo.
Commenting on the country’s economic scenario, Galipolo also mentioned the index known as the “malaise index”, which adds the level of unemployment and the level of inflation-which should end 2025 at the best level of the historical series, ie indicating a very high sense of well-being, given very low unemployment rates and the expectation of inflation for the end of the year below 5%.
Credit
The president of the Central Bank also said that given the restrictive level of interest, it is expected that credit concessions will slow down in the country. “We expect credit, as an excellence transmission mechanism of monetary policy, to have a slowdown, this is what is expected by raising the interest rate,” he said. He pointed out, however, that the strongest segment in which it is possible to see deceleration in credit is related to a regulatory change for INSS beneficiaries, who have had to register biometrics to grant loans. “We still see a point of inflection in credit, but absolutely expected given monetary policy, but that greater fall needs to be analyzed in the light of regulatory changes,” he said.
Still on credit, Galipolo said that in the granting to legal entities, there is a sharp drop in operations of the so-called “risk-risk” which, according to him, suffered a 15% drop in the quarter ended in July. “Apparently dialoguing a little with what happened to the issue of taxation of the “He detailed.
Regarding economic activity as a whole, Galipolo added that the general picture is of a very resilient economy, with some signs of accommodation. He mentioned, for example, that the gross fixed capital formation (FBCF) has been practically stable since the third quarter of 2024, if discounted from the calculation the punctual factor of an oil platform imports earlier this year. “It is important to analyze these indicators to be able to make a comparison, and understand what is noise and what is trend,” he said. In this context, Galipolo said that what is expected ahead is the softening of economic growth.
*With information from AFP
