Estimate for 2025 is still above the 3%inflation target ceiling, which should be pursued by the Central Bank
For the second consecutive week, the financial market reviews down the expectations it has in relation to inflation in 2025, from 4.81 projected a week ago to 4.80%, according to thereleased this Monday (6) by . Four weeks ago, the market worked with a projection of 4.85% in the year, for the. For subsequent years, it projects inflation of 4.28% in 2026; and 3.90% in 2027.
The estimate for 2025 is still above the ceiling of the inflation target that must be pursued by the BC. Defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), the goal is 3%, with a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage up or down. That is, the lower limit is 1.5% and the upper 4.5%. The preview of September official inflation was 0.48%, mainly impacted by the price of electricity. In August, the Broad National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA -15) was -0.14%. In 12 months, the IPCA-15 accumulates 5.32%, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Inflation preview shows that food prices have fallen for the fourth month in a row. In September, the retreat was 0.35% and impact of -0.08 pp in August, the drop was 0.53%.
Selic
To reach the inflation target, the BC uses as its main instrument todefined at 15% per year by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). This is the same percentage designed by Focus for 15 consecutive weeks. The uncertainties of the external economic scenario and indicators that show moderation in internal growth are among the factors that led to Selic to maintain at the last meeting. According to the last minutes disclosed, the current interest rate should be maintained “for a very prolonged period” to ensure that the target of inflation is reached. For the years 2026 and 2027, the market projects a reduction of this rate to 12.25% and 10.50%, respectively.
When the copom increases the basic interest rate, the purpose is to contain heated demand, and this causes reflexes in prices because higher interest rates make credit more expensive and stimulate savings. But in addition to Selic, banks consider other factors when defining consumer interest, such as risk of default, profit and administrative expenses. Thus, higher rates can also make it difficult to expand the economy. When the Selic rate is reduced the tendency is that credit is cheaper, with incentive to production and consumption, reducing control over inflation and stimulating economic activity.
Commence
With regard to the economy, the financial market has maintained, for four weeks the same projection for 2025, in 2.16%. For subsequent years, projections have also stood stable, but for three consecutive weeks, at 1.80% for 2026; and at 1.90% in 2027.
Dollar
Regarding the exchange rate, the Focus Bulletin works with the expectation of falling in the dollar quotation. The financial market projects that the US currency will close 2025 quoted at R $ 5.45. In the previous edition of the bulletin, published a week ago, it was expected that the dollar would close the year at $ 5.48; And four weeks ago the projection was at $ 5.55. For 2026, the market works with a dollar quotation at R $ 5.53; and for 2024, at R $ 5.56.
*With information from Agência Brasil
