The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), appears in the isolated lead in all scenarios tested for the state election of 2026, according to a survey by the Real Time Institute, released on Monday (6).
In the first scenario, Tarcisio has 52% of voting intentions, against 16% of the Minister of Entrepreneurship and former Governor Márcio França (PSB). Already in a second simulation, the governor of São Paulo records 47%, while the vice president of the Republic and also former governor, Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), appears with 26%.
Rejection of candidates
In terms of rejection, federal deputy Erika Hilton (PSOL) leads with 38%, followed by Tarcísio de Freitas (28%).
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Vice President Geraldo Alckmin appears technically tied with mayor of São Paulo Ricardo Nunes (MDB), with 26% and 24%, respectively.
The result reinforces Tarcisio’s favoritism in a moment of national visibility, amid speculation about a possible presidential candidacy supported by former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
Despite the movements in Brasilia, the priority that, according to allies, would serve as the basis for a possible national project.
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The survey was conducted between October 2 and 3, with 1,500 respondents throughout the state of São Paulo. The margin of error is three percentage points, more or less, and the confidence level is 95%.
