There are three scenarios in France after the Prime Minister’s resignation, all considered unlikely
The fifth French Prime Minister in less than two years endured 26 days in office. Sébastien Leconnu, 39, former Minister of Defense and trusted man of President Emmanuel Macron, resigned on Monday, a day after choosing the ministers of his government. He did so because he understands that “the country is more important than the party” and because it realized that its governance was condemned after “three weeks of negotiations”, mostly “discreet”, with parties that “think they have all majority” in parliament, he said in his resignation speech.
This is so since last year, when Macron decided to convene early legislative elections, which resulted in a parliament divided into three ideological blocks: left, center-right and far right, by this order of votes conquered. After Élisabeth Borne, Gabriel Attal, Michel Barnier, François Bayrou and Sébastien Leconnu, what will the president do now?
At the outset, Emmanuel Macron will do the same as usual, that is, he should appoint a new Prime Minister. This is one of the three possible scenarios.
Before choosing Leconnu, analysts anticipated that the French president could finally appoint a left figure, who won the last legislatures even without majority. But Macron again bet on a Renaissance name, to try to control the far right. And it did not result again, so when choosing someone of your trust seems unlikely, just as it seems unlikely to choose someone left or right.
Another scenario involves the dissolution of Parliament and the convening of legislative elections. Macron has been manifested against this possibility, very claimed by the far right, with the fear that Jordan Bardella’s national regrouping could win and reach the government.
The third scenario involves the resignation of Emmanuel Macron himself, who has also rejected several times, again with fear of making his way to the arrival of the far right to power.
The presidential ones themselves are accentuating instability in France, as Macron cannot compete in 2027. Leconnu himself lamented in today’s speech the “party appetites” that threaten governance based on elections that are still far away.
France has the largest deficit of the eurozone and all the budget cuts proposed so far generate contestation.
