I worked for the governments of Bush, Obama, Biden and Trump. This is what I have to say about Trump’s hypotheses for the Nobel Peace

Donald Trump is in the race, this Friday is known to be

Can Donald Trump really win a Nobel Peace? Yes. Here’s how

_{analysis of Brett McGurk (CNN Global Affairs Analyst that held top positions in the national security area during the governments of presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden)}

President Donald Trump does not hide his goal of winning a Nobel Peace Prize. His supporters say he already deserves it; Critics ridicule the idea by pointing out their controversial policies as a reason for exclusion.

Trump inherited two of the worst conflicts of this new century, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. On both fronts, the contours of an agreement are now in sight. It is not clear if Trump and your team will be able to establish peace. But if they succeed, the Nobel Committee can and must recognize the feat and assign Trump the coveted locket.

Let’s start with Ukraine.

After nine months of an erratic policy and a summer of Cimeiras with Putin, Zelensky and the European leaders, as well as a disastrous Russian offensive that did not result in any gain of territory and more than 20,000 Russian casualties, the form of an agreement may be emerging – an agreement with two main elements:

• First, a guarantee of security with US and NATO allies to provide military support to Ukraine and ensure the defense of its sovereign territory against future invasions.

• Second, some territory exchanges along the contact line in eastern Ukraine to restore safe borders and create conditions for lasting peace.

This is the agreement, since it is unlikely that Ukraine allows any agreement on territory exchanges without a security guarantee and Russia is unlikely to end its disastrous war without agreement on the territorial map.

There will be a sustained commitment to supply US military material and NATO to Ukraine, including aerial defenses and long -range missiles. It will also be necessary to increase sanctions and economic pressure on Moscow. Following the recent UN Assembly meetings in New York, Trump seems to have supported this approach, with US military equipment arriving in Ukraine through NATO allies.

For the first time, Europeans are discussing the use of more than $ 300 billion of frozen Russian goods as a loan to Ukraine to help their economy and defense base resist the ongoing war.

While the White House remains consistent in this most determined approach, they will increase Putin’s odds to end up having no choice but to complete an agreement and save the face. Russia has already suffered over one million military casualties in the war chosen by Putin and its economy is increasingly under pressure, with interest rates close to 20% and budgets dependent on exports of vulnerable energy to sanctions.

If Trump is able to maintain the pressure on Moscow and define the contours of the agreement to end the war, it is possible to reach an agreement before the Nobel Committee chooses the 2026 award in a year.

End as Gaza War

Trump has entered into a ceasefire of three phases of the Biden Administration, designed to end the war in Gaza, with a second phase that predicted provisional political and security structures, along with a large-scale reconstruction program for the enclave. The structure for the “next day” had been developed with details to be finalized during the first phase, a period of six weeks when hostages should be released and assistance to Gaza increased.

Tragically, the ceasefire was interrupted after the first phase in March. Over the past six months, some of the most intense Israeli military operations have seen to date, along with a humanitarian crisis, during which Israel first blocked Gaza’s borders.

Two weeks ago, any pretense to the Nobel Prize seemed doubtful due to the situation in Gaza.

The conversations had stagnated and Israel was starting a controversial military operation to take the city of Gaza and the northern neighborhood of the Gaza Strip. Israelite responsible also stated that Israel intended to occupy Gaza, perhaps reinstall the territory with Israelites and at the same time expelling the inhabitants of Gaza.

The situation went from bad to worse.

This changed last week, after Trump presented a 20 -point plan to end the war, with Israel to renounce the annexation or occupation and Hamas to renounce their control over Gaza, as well as to release all the hostages, alive and dead. This plan resembles what had been foreseen for phase 2 of the January agreement and received the endorsement of Israel, as well as the support of Arab countries and mostly Muslim, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Pakistan and Indonesia.

Having worked on this issue and helped lead the negotiations for the only two ceasefes of this terrible war, including the agreement completed in January, congratulate the president and his team, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, for finalizing this program and the necessary diplomacy to gather the support of such a vast group of countries.

There is now a consensus that Hamas cannot continue to control Gaza once the war is over and that Gaza requires an international effort organized by the US to restore security and establish new governance structures to move Hamas, which has been governor for almost two decades.

Last week, Hamas offered their own qualified support to the plan, and talk in Cairo is now under way to organize the release of hostages along with a exchange of Palestinian prisoners. I suspect that Hamas will look for delays and reject the obligation to disarm and abandon Gaza’s security control. Trump is right to maintain pressure on Hamas, having written on Saturday that delays are unacceptable as well as about Israel.

This week can determine if Hamas is finally prepared to release hostages, and the group should hear all countries with influence to do it without further disputes.

But the plan makes it clear that it will be implemented regardless of what Hamas says in the areas that the group no longer controls. This can accelerate the end of the war and a new reality of a Gaza without Hamas, a necessary condition for long -term peace.

Israel also has to do its part, including the renunciation of any Gaza reoccupation or reinstalling plan – essential for any long -term initiative, such as Israel’s acceptance, Trump’s plan, “a credible path to Palestinian self -determination and the creation of a state”.

In the background, the US has already delineated the end of the Gaza War and the way for a long -term coexistence and peace between Israelites and Palestinians. Many of its clauses are general principles, but the requirements are clear: Hamas has to return all hostages and renounce their Gaza control in exchange for many Palestinian prisoners, a ceasefire and the removal of Israelite forces. Anyone who wants to end this horrible war must now appeal to Hamas to accept the conditions without delay.

President Donald Trump talks to journalists before leaving Morristown, New Jersey, on September 14. Alex Brandon/AP

Trump’s ticket to Oslo

The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded every year on December 10, the date of Alfred Nobel’s death in 1896. The Committee chooses the award two months earlier – on October 10th. Trump hopes, no doubt, to be able to receive the prize this week. This is highly unlikely. But next year marks the 125th anniversary of the prize and Trump may well be entitled to it.

I wrote in a previous column that 2026 will be a gateway between a world of consolidation and stabilization or growing disorder and conflict. The wars in Gaza and Ukraine are two touch stones that, if resolved, would help reinforce integration and interconnectivity in the Middle East and Europe, with the deterrent of Iranian and Russian ambition, respectively, and a strategic consequence of reducing conflict risk in Taiwan.

President Trump and his team deserve credit for helping to create the necessary staff to end both wars. If now they can continue the work and do not lose their concentration during the next year (a big “if”), then Trump could claim the 125th Nobel Peace Prize with credibility.

Regardless of what can be thought of President Trump and his administration, in these two most essential questions of war and peace, we must all expect him to be successful.