Donald Trump’s surprise announcement that Israel and Hamas have reached a framework agreement for a ceasefire in Gaza has sparked celebrations in the Strip and in Israel, and applause from the international community. It is, however, a complex process loaded with unknowns. Here are some of them.
What has been agreed? According to Donald Trump, both Israel and the Palestinian militias have accepted “phase 1” of the peace plan presented by the American president ten days ago. The complete plan included a first exchange of hostages and prisoners between the parties, the partial withdrawal of Israel from Gaza and the entry of humanitarian aid. That would be the phase that would be about to begin.
When does it start? Following the official announcement by the Government of Israel that it accepts the plan, once its security cabinet and council of ministers have met. According to Trump’s proposal, the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces must be completed to the so-called “yellow line” within 24 hours, to allow Hamas and Islamic Jihad to safely remove and hand over the Israeli hostages to the International Committee of the Red Cross. All live hostages should be released within 72 hours, that is, Sunday or Monday. Israel has also yet to publish a full list of the Palestinian prisoners it intends to release in that period.
The map of the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza set in Trump’s peace plan. / White House
How many hostages will be released? Hamas and Islamic Jihad hold the bodies of 28 hostages. Israel is currently holding some 11,040 Palestinians, more than half without charge or trial, according to the Israeli human rights organization HaMoked, as of September 1, 2025. Hundreds are children. Israel is holding at least 730 Palestinian bodies, some for decades, to use as bargaining chips in negotiations, according to the Jerusalem Legal Aid and Human Rights Center (JLAC).
Will it end the famine in Gaza? Humanitarian aid should begin to enter Gaza in abundant quantities in a process sponsored by the United Nations and international NGOs, not by the militarized Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which has been a death trap in which more than 2,000 unarmed Palestinians have been shot dead by Israel and American mercenaries.
Palestinians celebrate ceasefire agreement / Abdel Kareem Hana / AP
Have the hostilities already ended? No. Israel has continued to attack Gaza and at least seven Palestinians have been killed since Trump announced Israel’s acquiescence in signing the agreement.
Is this a peace plan between Israelis and Palestinians? At all. The proposal presented by Trump did establish something similar to a road map for the solution of the conflict, but only in Gaza. According to that text, about which little is known, Hamas would first hand over its weapons and renounce the Government of the Strip, which would pass to a group of Palestinian technocrats with international supervision, including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Only in the long term and under unspecified conditions would control of Gaza be transferred to the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, the Palestinian National Authority. And there is no talk of the vacancy of the West Bank or East Jerusalem.
What can go wrong? Israel already violated a similar phased roadmap in March of this year. After the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House, a ceasefire very similar to this one was announced on January 15: exchange of prisoners and armistice, also at the proposal of the United States, Egypt and Qatar. Designed by Joe Biden, after the first stage of cessation of hostilities there would come another stage of Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza and a reconstruction process that will last five years. Netanyahu however ordered the attacks to resume and subjected Gaza to a total siege and famine.
Are there guarantees? They are not known in writing. But the stamp given to the plan by the fact that the president of the United States has been associated with this diplomatic success suggests that he will use the leverage he has as a superpower ally of Israel to make it do its part. Arab countries can, in turn, put pressure on Hamas.
Who has achieved the agreement? Not only Trump, but also Qatar, Egypt, and Türkiye have been important in the negotiations. And, in parallel, Saudi Arabia with France and related countries such as Spain have launched a political process for the two-state solution, which was reflected in a summit at the United Nations in September and which has added pressure to Tel Aviv.
WASHINGTON, 01/10/2025.- Photograph distributed by the White House that shows the President of the United States, Donald Trump, holding the phone with the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, during the meeting they held last Monday in the Oval Office of the White House. / The White House / EFE
Who wins? Israel had already won strategically. It has half a thousand combat aircraft and helicopters, 50,000 armored vehicles and tanks. The United States has provided it with 100,000 tons of bombs. Hamas only has automatic weapons, anti-tank material and some rockets that it has already spent most of. This is basically a capitulation agreement for Hamas, in exchange for the only thing that really gives it bargaining power, the hostages.
Why now? Israel’s attack on Qatar to kill Hamas negotiators staying there has irritated the United States. It has been a catalyst that has accelerated the calendar of a peace process from which Trump intends to obtain political, international image and, probably, economic benefits. His son-in-law Jared Kurschner has business with the region’s petrostates, and the reconstruction process, valued at tens of billions of euros, represents a clear business opportunity for American companies, among others.
And what about the West Bank? There continue the murders of Palestinian civilians by radical Jewish settlers and the Israel Defense Forces, which de facto control 80% of the territory. Israel has approved a number of new illegal colonies, taking advantage of the war in Gaza, including the controversial E1 that divides the Palestinians of the West Bank and those of East Jerusalem. If the process that is beginning these days progresses adequately and there is a change of Government in Israel, an attempt could be made to relaunch the moribund peace process, which includes the decolonization of the West Bank. This is what the bulk of the international community has been defending for decades, but without doing anything to achieve it.
PHOTODAY Tel Aviv (Israel), 10/09/2025.- Celebration after the announcement of a peace agreement in Hostage Square in Tel Aviv, Israel, this Thursday. / ABIR SULTAN / EFE
What will happen in Israeli politics? There are elections next year, at the latest in October 2026. So Netanyahu already needed a way out. Now you can turn this into a success of your master plan. The opposition will say that they also support the plan, but that they could have accepted it sooner and protected the country and saved the hostages. The extreme right will reproach him for not having occupied Gaza.
Will the Government of Israel collapse? It is possible that the most ultra ministers will leave the Government, but the opposition has already offered Netanyahu to support his Government so that he accepts the plan. It would take at least three months before holding elections after the dissolution of the Knesset.
What will be the next steps? Negotiators from Israel and Hamas will have to continue talking to finalize the next phases: how to carry out the delivery of weapons and the demilitarization of Hamas in Gaza, how to allow the return of Palestinians who left Gaza, including members of Hamas, and the establishment of a technocratic Palestinian government so that it can take charge of basic services, according to the Haaretz newspaper. This would be overseen by the “Peace Council” led by Trump.
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