Annualized IPCA rate rose from 5.13% to 5.17% and moved away from the target, which is 3%
After registering a 0.11% (price drop) in August, Brazil had a monthly rate of 0.48% in the IPCA (Broad National Index and Consumer Prices), below the projections of financial market analysts. In the last 12 months, inflation increased from 5.13% to 5.17%.
The (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) released the result this Thursday (9.Oct.2025). Here is it (PDF – 623 kB).
Economists’ projections indicated that the monthly rate would be 0.50% to 0.55%, with the median of the estimates obtained by the Poder360 em 0,52%.
The annualized rate moved away from the inflation target, which is 3%. It is also outside the range allowed by the CMN (National Monetary Council), from 1.5% to 4.5%. The (Central Bank) said, in a public letter, that inflation will return to the target range.
The monetary authority declared annualized inflation.
The Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) maintained the basic interest rate, the Selic, at 15% per year in September to control inflation. It was among the directors of the Central Bank that the base interest rate remained at the same level.
The president of the BC, Gabriel Galípolo, signaled that he will maintain the Selic rate during this period for .
According to estimates by financial market agents, inflation in 2025 will be 4.80%, above the range allowed by the target. The median of the estimates indicates a Selic maintained at 15%.
INFLATION IN SEPTEMBER
IBGE observed that 3 of the 9 groups surveyed had a negative rate in September:
- Household items (-0.40%);
- Food and beverages (-0.26%);
- Communication (-0.17%).
The main highlight is the Food and beverages group, which experienced deflation for the 4th month in a row. The 0.26% drop was driven by food at home (-0.41%), with a drop in the prices of tomatoes (-11.52%), onions (-10.16%), garlic (-8.70%), potatoes (-8.55%) and rice (-2.14%).
Inflation of 0.48% in September was impacted by the Housing group, which had a rate of 2.97%. With the end of the incorporation of the Itaipu Bonus, residential electricity rose 10.31% in the month and registered an individual impact of 0.41 percentage points, the highest of the month, according to IBGE.
In September, the red tariff flag level 2 added R$7.87 to the electricity bill for every 100 KWh consumed.
The Transport group almost remained stable (+0.01%) in September. Fuels increased by 0.87%, with highlights being ethanol (+2.25%), gasoline (+0.75%) and diesel oil (+0.38%).
In the Health and personal care group, the health plan increased by 0.50%, with an impact of 0.02 percentage points.
