Genial/Quaest research released this Thursday (9) shows that President Luiz Inácio da Silva (PT) has an advantage over all possible opponents in the 2026 election. The PT member leads in all 1st round scenarios, scoring between 35% and 43% of intentions depending on the list of candidates. Lula would also beat all his rivals in the second round if the election were held today. The president, however, does not have more than half of the voting intentions in any of the scenarios due to the number of undecided voters and those who declare that they will vote blank, invalid or not vote at all.
The research points out that the current president has increased his advantage over the governor of , (Republicans), considered the main name of the opposition at this time. Tarcísio states that he will not embark on the dispute for Palácio do Planalto and will seek re-election to the state government. The head of the São Paulo Executive had been reducing Lula’s advantage until May, when the result was a technical tie of 41% to 40%, with the president numerically ahead.
Genial/Quaest research shows that President Lula has an advantage over all possible opponents in the 2026 election (Disclosure / Genial/Quaest)
However, since then, the trend has reversed and Lula has gained ground until reaching the current 45% voting intention against Tarcísio’s 33%. The president’s 12 percentage point (pp) advantage over the governor is the largest recorded this year. Lula fluctuated upwards at the margin of error of two points, while the governor of São Paulo fluctuated negatively at the same level. Another 19% said they will vote blank or null and there are 3% who are undecided.
The Deputies imposed a defeat on the Lula government on Wednesday (8) and overturned the Provisional Measure with alternative collection measures to the larger increase in the Tax on Financial Operations (IOF). Lula’s allies put the defeat on Tarcísio, who called deputies asking for a vote against the measure – the governor denies involvement in the matter.
Quaest interviewed 2,004 Brazilians aged 16 or over in person between the 2nd and 5th of October. The confidence level is 95%.
The most competitive opponent against Lula at the moment is (PDT). The president would beat the former deputy from Ceará by 41% to 32%, a difference of nine points.
On the other hand, Lula’s biggest advantage is 23 percentage points: he would beat the governor of , (PSD), by 45% to 22%. Next, the president has a 15 point advantage against (47% to 32%), (46% to 31%) and (46% to 31%).
Quaest also measured spontaneous voting intentions for president. Unlike other scenarios, in this case a list of candidate names is not presented. Lula was mentioned by 19% of those interviewed and the former president (PL), who is ineligible, by 6%. The former first lady, (PL), Tarcísio and other names combined were mentioned by 1% each. 69% were undecided and 3% responded that they would vote blank, invalid or not vote at all.
*With information from Estadão Conteúdo
Published by Nícolas Robert
