One year before the presidential election, the president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) maintains leadership in all scenarios tested by the new research Genial / Questionreleased this Thursday (9).
The survey shows that the PT member has between 35% and 43% of voting intentions in the first roundwhile its main opponents appear at much lower levels.
In the eight first round simulations, Lula appears with rates that vary from 35% a 43%. The opposition’s best performance is from former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL)which, if the ineligibility were reversed, would have 26%.
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Then they appear Michelle Bolsonaro (PL)com 21%and the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans)com 18%.
In the 2nd round, Lula increases his advantage over Tarcísio and Michelle
In all second round scenarios, the president surpasses his opponents with comfortable margins.
A smallest difference is against Ciro Gomes (PDT)of 9 percentage points (41% and 32%). I and biggest advantage occurs before Eduardo Leite (PSD-RS)com 47% a 22%.
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Against Bolsonaro, Lula would win by 46% a 36%. In duels with Michelle Bolsonaro and Tarcísio de Freitas, the PT member would also maintain 12 points advantage — Michelle tem 34% and Tarcisio 33%.
The governor of Paraná, Junior Mouse (PSD)appears with 31%13 points behind the president.
Majority wants Lula not to run for re-election
Despite the leadership in voting intentions, the majority of respondents — 56% — believes that Lula should not seek re-electionwhile 42% defend a new candidacy.
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The 14-point difference is the smallest recorded since May, when 66% were opposed to the idea.
Not the case of Bolsonaro, 76% of voters say he should support another candidaterepeating the same index as September.
Spontaneous survey shows Lula on the rise and Bolsonaro on the decline
In the spontaneous survey — when the voter mentions the candidate’s name without encouragement — Lula grew to 19% of mentions, before 15% in July and 11% in May.
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Bolsonaro, on the other hand, fell from 11% to 6% in the same period. The percentage of undecided remains stable at 69%.
Methodology
The search Genial / Question was carried out between October 2nd and 5th, 2025com 2,004 face-to-face interviews across the country. THE margin of error is from 2 percentage pointsand the confidence level is 95%.
