The president () maintains an advantage over his opponents and would continue to win in all second-round scenarios tested for the 2026 presidential elections in a new Genial/Quaest survey.
The survey indicates stability in the recovery of the government’s image, amid splits on the right and popular support for agendas such as Income Tax reform and the rejection of the amnesty () and the Blindagem PEC.
After a start to 2025 marked by popularity crises, such as the Pix taxation and undue discounts from the INSS (National Social Security Institute), Planalto tries to capitalize on the discourse of national sovereignty, associate the Bolsonaro family with Donald Trump’s tariff crisis and reinforce Lula’s image as an ally of the poorest classes.
2,004 face-to-face interviews were carried out with voters in 120 municipalities, between the 2nd and 5th of October.
In second round simulations, Lula has 45% of voting intentions against 33% for (Republicans). In a previous round of research, carried out in September, the governor maintained 35% against the president, who scored 43%. The numerical difference went from 8 to 12 points.
Against (), the PT member scores 41% compared to 32% for the former minister. In front of . (), governor of Paraná, Lula has 44% and his opponent, 31%. Compared to (Novo), from Minas Gerais, the score is 47% to 32%.
With (), governor of Goiás, the result is 46% to 31%. Against (PSD), from Rio Grande do Sul, 45% to 22%.
Rehearsed two months ago, the initiative by right-wing governors in search of unity against the Lula administration in the face of splits in the segment and Bolsonaro’s reluctance to nominate a successor for 2026.
Examples include the recent exchange of attacks involving Caiado and the senator and president of the PP, Ciro Nogueira (PI), in addition to the resistance of ministers from both parties to leave the Lula government with the disembarkation of the federation formed by the two parties.
Bolsonaro, ineligible by the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) and convicted by the STF (Supreme Federal Court) in the case of the 2022 coup plot, appears with 36% in the second round simulation, while Lula would win with 46%.
In a scenario with (PL-SP), the PT member has 46% against 31% for the deputy. With (PL), Lula has 46% against 34% for the former first lady.
Support for Bolsonaro’s candidacy maintained its level after falling after the former president was sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison for an attempted coup. They continue to think that he should give up the race and support another name 76%. Those who believe he should remain a candidate are 18%.
Among Bolsonaro supporters, 47% are in favor of the former president passing the baton. Those who think he should insist on the dispute, 52%.
Among non-Bolsonaro right-wing voters, 72% prefer another name, against 25% in favor of Bolsonaro.
The majority of voters also believe that Lula should not run for re-election: 56% say he should not run, and 42% think he should seek a new term.
Eight first-round scenarios were tested. Lula leads in all of them.
Eduardo Bolsonaro is the most rejected politician among voters, with 68% saying they would not vote for him. In a previous round of research, he was tied at the limit of the margin of error with his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who scored 64%, now 63%. The duo is followed by Michelle (61%) and Ciro Gomes (50%).
Eduardo has been in the US since March, where he leads a campaign for sanctions to free his father from prison. He is the target of a representation on the Ethics Council asking for the loss of his mandate due to breach of decorum.
The congressmen who presented the document maintain, among other things, that Eduardo made repeated attacks on institutions, especially the STF; incited against the electoral process by stating that “without amnesty for Jair Bolsonaro there will be no election in 2026”; and also worked with foreign authorities to embarrass Brazilian institutions.
The representative’s rapporteur defended this Wednesday (8) the filing of the case.
See the margins of error, in percentage points, for each group in the Genial/Quaest survey:
- Education: up to primary education (4), complete secondary education (3), complete higher education (4)
- Income: up to 2 minimum wages (4), from 2 to 5 (3), more than 5 (4)
- Religion: Catholics (3), evangelicals (4)
- Region: Southeast (3), Northeast (4), South (6), Midwest/North (8)
- Political positioning: Lulista (5), non-Lulista left (6), non-Bolsonarist right (5), Bolsonarist (6), no position (6)
