Brazil is expected to break its soybean export record in 2025 — and two months in advance. According to data released this Wednesday (8) by Anec, the National Association of Cereal Exporters, the line-up — the ship schedule — indicates 7.1 million tons of soybeans to be shipped in October.
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It is a heated level: in October 2024, sales were 4.4 million tons. In other words, the expectation is for growth of 60% year-on-year.
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As a result, oilseed exports are expected to reach 102.2 million tons, surpassing, in ten months, the previous annual record, which was 101.3 million tons of soybeans during the 12 months of 2023.
Also according to Anec, the forecast for November and December is for shipments of over 8 million tons, bringing the estimated total for the year closer to 110 million tons, the likely new record.
The difference will be large in relation to the balance in 2024, of 97.3 million tons, affected by the crop failure due to weather problems.
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The Chinese impact
Anec credited the increase in volumes to purchases from China. In September alone, the Asian country imported 6.5 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, a volume that represents an impressive 93% of the total.
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The Asian country stopped purchasing soybeans from the United States in May, in retaliation for tariffs and trade restrictions imposed by the Americans on Chinese products. And he maintains his position pending a trade agreement with the White House.
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Therefore, the line-up remains strong here in the last quarter of the year — a period in which the Chinese are normally served by North American producers. These, in fact, are starting to harvest a new harvest without their main customer. The expectation in the North American market is that the halt in trade between the United States and China will result in a storage crisis there.
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