Europe wakes up to a threat that has lasted decades, orchestrated by Moscow in the shadows of “peace”. And now you may have to do “similar things”, even if you’re not as prepared
It is thousands of years old, it is fought in the shadows, without missiles, planes and armored vehicles, but it can “cause immense destruction in a country” for just a fraction of the amount spent on a military conflict. These are not open battles, but an invisible web that crosses multiple domains, always with the aim of hiding the origin of the attack. “Something new and dangerous is happening”, warned Ursula von der Leyen, last week, at the European Council that took place in Copenhagen. But experts guarantee that this war has been in Europe for a long time and is here to stay.
“Europe has been the target of a hybrid war for a long time. It will increase, because it is especially important for Russia at this time. For the price of a missile, it is possible to pay 200 opinion leaders in France for a year. It is a very effective expense”, warns historian António José Telo in statements to CNN Portugal.
The president of the European Commission did not mince words in the capital of Denmark, where she argued that the 27 must protect “every square centimeter” against this multifaceted threat that Moscow is creating in the European Union, referring to the repeated incursions of drones, sabotage and cyberattacks. The European leader warned that this is “a coherent and growing campaign” aimed at unsettling European citizens and “testing resolve” and dividing the West.
At issue are the dozens of incidents that have hit several European countries in recent months, with submarine cables cut, logistics centers paralyzed by cyberattacks, drones forcing the closure of airports, as well as large-scale influence campaigns to try to elect political parties close to the Kremlin’s interests. Despite being more discreet, these operations are “enormously cost-effective”, representing only a fraction of Russian military spending.
But for António José Telo, who is also a professor and researcher in military strategy, these activities are not only not new, but also have roots that go back to the times of the Cold War, when communists began by creating “a fifth column” that involved infiltrating a society with people and institutions that defend their interests. “There have always been hybrid wars, although they are not always talked about”, he recalls.
And Russia never hid it. In 2012, the Kremlin formalized the role of hybrid warfare in its military doctrine, integrating information, cyber, economic and political operations as tools to achieve objectives without necessarily escalating to full open confrontation. The Russians call it “war by other means” and this change was orchestrated in 2013 by the man responsible for military operations in the war in Ukraine: Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.
“The Russians use different methods that do not allow the origin of attacks to be detected, such as cyber warfare or information manipulation. The objective is to create panic and alarm among Europeans, with the aim of inhibiting the decision-making process in Europe and causing divisions. There are no planes and tanks, but today, from a distance, it is possible to cause immense destruction in a country”, explains Lieutenant General Marco Serronha.
This type of action is extremely effective in democratic societies, where Russia has been able to create networks of paid supporters, with commentators, opinion leaders, universities, unions and even sports institutions. All of this is done through a network of opaque and diffuse financing. According to professor António José Telo, the defense against these attacks involves two things that Europe, at the moment, does not have: cohesion and firm values.
“It is very difficult to fight this war, because the main defense lies in political cohesion and the existence of firm values in society, two things that do not currently exist. Europe is in tremendous confusion and it is easy to inflame existing divisions”, admits the historian.
For this reason, the president of the European Commission suggested creating measures to stop Russian threats that go beyond “traditional defense”. Thus, he defends a “new mentality” with unity, deterrence and determination. But for Lieutenant General Marco Serronha, the answer involves creating similar mechanisms that can be used against Russia.
“The Europeans do not have this methodology of strategic action against their adversaries. We need an offensive cyber war, we need to carry out a hybrid war under Russia, just as it does against us. We will have to do similar things, although the Russians may be more prepared for the response”, argues Marco Serronha.
