US agricultural federation says trade dispute opened space for new South American suppliers
The trade war between the United States and China boosted Brazilian soybeans in the Asian country. From June to August, China suspended the purchase of North American grain, giving preference to other suppliers, such as Brazil and Argentina.
The conclusion is in a survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation (American Federation of Agricultural Bureaus, in English). The largest entity representing the agricultural sector in the country, the federation encompasses 6 million North American rural producers.
According to the survey, Chinese imports of North American soybeans plummeted to their lowest historical level in 2025. In contrast, Brazil became the main supplier of the grain to the Asian giant.
From January to August 2025, China imported just 5.8 million tons of American soybeans, compared to 26.5 million in the same period last year, a drop of almost 80%. From June to August, according to the report, the United States did not embark “virtually nothing” of soybeans to China, and the Asian country did not purchase any new crops for next year’s harvest.
In contrast, Brazil exported more than 77 million tons of the product to the Chinese market in the same period. In the same period, Argentina increased soybean sales after suspending the export tax, reimbursing the tax after the export value exceeded US$7 billion.
According to the American Federation of Agricultural Offices, the retraction is not isolated and is the result of the supplier diversification policy implemented by China for years. Since 2018, when Donald Trump’s first administration began the trade imbroglio, the Asian country has stopped giving priority to North American farmers, even with Chinese domestic demand at record levels.
Other products
The impacts of this commercial reconfiguration, according to the North American entity, are profound. In addition to soybeans, US exports of corn, wheat and sorghum to China will fall to zero by 2025, and sales of pork and cotton will continue at a reduced pace.
According to the survey, the United States Department of Agriculture estimates that the total value of agricultural exports to China will fall to US$ 17 billion this year – 30% lower than 2024 and more than 50% lower than 2022. For 2026, the estimate is even lower: just US$ 9 billion, the lowest level since 2018.
Government aid
The Donald Trump government is preparing a new financial aid package for rural producers, similar to that granted in 2019, when more than US$22 billion was allocated to the sector during the first trade dispute with China. “We will use tariff resources to support our farmers”said Trump in his profile on Truth Social. At the same time, the US Treasury is studying emergency measures to contain the agricultural trade deficit.
In addition to the trade war, North American farmers are suffering from the fall in the price of commodities (primary goods with international prices) and the increase in logistics costs, aggravated by the low water level of the Mississippi River. The United States Department of Agriculture itself estimates that the country’s agricultural income will fall by 2.5% in 2025, reaching the lowest value since 2007.
With information from .
