Economists consulted by Poder360 estimate that the economic team already had overestimated revenues before the defeat in the Chamber
The revenue frustration that the president’s government (PT) will have from the MP will significantly impact the attempt to meet the fiscal target in 2026, of a primary surplus of 0.25% of GDP (gross domestic product), which is equivalent to R$34.3 billion in nominal values. The assessment is from economists consulted by Poder360.
Next year, extra revenue from the IOF MP was estimated at R$20.87 billion. The mission is compounded by that of the TCU (Federal Audit Court) in that the government will have to aim at the center of the goal. All this in an election year.
The MP was edited by Lula as an alternative to the increase in the IOF (Financial Operations Tax). José Ronaldo de Souza, chief economist at , assesses that the government has an overestimated revenue in 2026, which makes the situation more difficult.
“The government expects economic growth that is too high for what the market is predicting. Even worse: more than the Central Bank projects. So, they are foreseeing in the Budget project a of more than 2.4%. But we should grow 1.4%, 1.5% next year”he states.
The expert says that the government was already working “on the limit”in reference to the 0.25% tolerance interval that the fiscal framework allows for meeting the target. In 2025, the economic team will have a primary deficit of R$30.2 billion, close to the negative balance of R$31 billion that it may have due to the rule.
“The target has this tolerance precisely because of issues that can happen throughout the year. When there are surprises and the government has no margin, this happens: the government is left in a complicated situation”he declares.
Renan Martins, economist at , says that the Lula government will have to adopt fiscal measures to reach the target. Another possibility is “make a bet that the collection will exceed what was sent in the PLOA [Projeto de Lei Orçamentária Anual] of 2026”in your assessment.
“It cannot be ruled out that the Budget will be approved or maintained in an unrealistic manner, as has happened in the past”it says.
As for the obligation to aim for the center of the goal, Martins believes there is room for an understanding with TCU. “I believe there will be some conciliation on this issue. The government should only be forced to aim for the center of the target from 2026 onwards”he states.
The economist cited an example: “Issues that affect the current year are usually resolved in this way, either by the TCU or by the Judiciary. The reindexing of minimum spending on health and education should have occurred in 2023 according to the approved fiscal framework, but it only came into effect in 2024.”
POSSIBLE PATH
Ronaldo de Souza states that the government “always tries to charge more tax”, which, for him, is quite complicated.
“The alternative that seems most viable to me is contingency and blocking of spending, which will make public management very complicated. So, I think there is no way: we will have to contingency, block more”it says.
In September, the economic team blocked R$1.4 billion in the 2025 Budget. As a result, it went from R$10.7 billion to R$12.1 billion.
The chief economist at , Gabriel Leal de Barros, declares that the government can resort to other sources of revenue to close the accounts.
“I believe they will use the loophole in the MP auction of remaining pre-salt areas to sell oil from [Pré-Sal Petróleo S.A] or hold new auctions”he states.
The insistence on the retroactive collection of 15% Income Tax on capital gains (profits) and a 100% fine on the tax assessed on bets is on the government’s radar, as found by the Poder360. A bill must be sent with the compliance program, which involves the repatriation of amounts sent abroad until December 31, 2024.
The fundraising potential is R$5 billionaccording to the Minister of Finance, . Lula the fintechs and declared that he will meet with assistants next week to discuss the possibility of increasing taxes for these companies.
“It’s a good complement [de receita] and it can be a chosen path too”says Martins.
