showed a notable recovery in popularity. This could make your life in Congress worse, as was clear in the case of the defeat of MP 1,303.
If Lula were soaring in the polls, an important part of the center would already be on the government’s side. It would not be peaceful: as we have already said here, the new party machines in the center are in an identity crisis, still unsure whether to continue negotiating support with any president or adopt a clearer right-wing ideological identity. But there would certainly be enough supporters for Lula to form a majority in Congress.
On the other hand, if Lula were extremely weak, already discarded as he is, the right-wing opposition in Congress would perhaps help to balance public accounts. After all, he would have a good prospect of assuming the presidency in 2027, and he would not want to govern a broken country.
None of these scenarios correspond to the current situation.
Lula is back in the running, and is currently the favorite to win the 2026 election. The improvement in popularity began even before the tariff, with the change in the . But there is no doubt that Bananinha and Paulo Figueiredo helped Lula enormously, even giving him political conditions to support his most popular measure, the. Lula is already strong enough that his ministers would rather change parties than lose their positions.
But the right still has a good one, even if not as good as they thought it would be three months ago. Their parties have fortunes guaranteed by the electoral fund, they are the situation in almost all states, and they must be able to count on the Bolsonarist base. lost its luster after the tariffs and the defeat of the amnesty, but it is still the crush of rich Brazilians. The split caused by Bolsonarism continues to make the Brazilian right bleed, but perhaps some truce will be negotiated in the coming months.
In other words, Lula is not yet strong enough to generate a tsunami of supporters for his candidacy, but he is strong enough that the right needs to sabotage his government before the gain in popularity becomes irreversible.
That’s why Tarcísio de Freitas worked for , which taxed inexplicably exempt bets and applications. Before the right in Congress disfigured it, MP 1303 helped Brazil balance its accounts with minimal loss of social well-being. If so, your life will be more difficult than it would be if Haddad’s MP had been approved.
Tarcísio’s actions against MP 1,303 show that the risk of the right losing the election in 2026 is already great enough for them to stop thinking about fiscal balance only after an eventual victory.
The dream scenario for conservatives would be for Lula to make the fiscal adjustment entirely based on social spending – which at some point, regardless of the winner in 2026, must be affected. Lula would lose popularity, lose the election and hand over to Tarcísio a Brazil with balanced accounts and difficult tasks completed.
Unfortunately for right-wingers, the only one who seems willing to do everything the other side needs to win in 2026 is .
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