The strengths and weaknesses of the favorites for Barroso’s seat in the Supreme Court

The three favorites to be nominated to the Federal Supreme Court (STF) in the vacancy opened by the retirement of minister Luís Roberto Barroso have different levels of support in the Palácio do Planalto, in Congress and in the Court itself. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s entourage assesses that the Union’s attorney general, Jorge Messias, takes the lead due to his greater proximity to the head of the Executive, responsible for the nomination.

Senator Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) gathers support in the Senate, which has the task of voting on the chosen name, and in the STF. The minister of the Federal Court of Auditors (TCU) Bruno Dantas is out of the loop, but has good relations in the Three Powers.

In common, the three are under 50 years old, which guarantees almost 30 years at Court, if they decide to stay until the maximum age of 75 years old. Like recent presidents, Lula has bet on younger nominees, who can remain ministers for decades.

Check out the strengths and weaknesses of each of the three most rated below. When contacted, they did not speak out.

Jorge Messias

Jorge Messias’s greatest asset in securing his seat on the STF is Lula’s strict trust. In this third term, this was, according to allies, the main criterion observed by the president in his appointments to the Court.

Lula took advantage of his confidence in choosing his lawyer in Operation Lava-Jato, Cristiano Zanin, for the STF in June 2023, and Flávio Dino, former Minister of Justice, in November of the same year.

The president would, in the view of interlocutors, intend to avoid what he would consider a mistake in his first two terms, when his nominees took positions that harmed the PT in the Supreme Court.

The most exemplary case is that of Joaquim Barbosa, appointed by Lula in 2003 and who later, as rapporteur of the monthly allowance process, voted for the convictions that sent former party presidents José Dirceu and José Genoino to jail.

The assessment in Planalto is that the president would not be surprised by Messias’ positions, if he is chosen.

Furthermore, the Union’s attorney general also has the support of ministers such as Gleisi Hoffmann (Institutional Relations) and Fernando Haddad (Finance), from PT and Prerogativas, a group that brings together lawyers sympathetic to Lula.

The president’s allies also highlight the attorney general’s proximity to social issues, which pleases Lula.

The minister is evangelical and has acted as an interlocutor in a sector in which Lula is facing difficulties. He represented the government, for example, in the last editions of the March for Jesus, the biggest evangelical event in the country, which takes place in São Paulo.

On the other hand, the obstacles for Messias lie in the eventual wear and tear that Lula would face with the Senate leadership, which works for Pacheco. As a result, the AGU minister would face more difficulty in being approved by the House compared to the senator, and the government would need to spend political capital.

As AGU, Messias built good relationships in the STF, where he is seen as a technical name. Despite this, he is not the favorite of members of the Court.

Marco Aurélio de Carvalho, coordinator of Prerogativas, publicly defends his name:

— Prerogativas will support any choice that President Lula decides to make, and that choice is up to him alone. But it seems to us that this is the moment of the Messiah. He has a solid legal background and has shown his ability to articulate politics.

Rodrigo Pacheco

Pacheco has the president of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), as his main electoral campaign for his trip to the Court. Furthermore, he is the favorite candidate of a wing of the STF.

Pacheco and Alcolumbre are very close and have taken turns presiding over the Senate in recent years, and the support of the current commander of the House is seen as essential to pass any nomination.

His experience of two terms in charge of the Legislature also led Pacheco to have the approval of a good number of senators to go to the STF.

In the Court, Gilmar Mendes has already publicly expressed his preference for him, highlighting his “courage” and legal preparation. Alexandre de Moraes and Cármen Lúcia are also considered in favor of his nomination.

Support within the STF was gained due to his terms as president of the Senate and Congress (2021-2025), which occurred in moments of turbulence between the Powers.

In 2021, for example, Pacheco rejected an impeachment request against Moraes presented by then-president Jair Bolsonaro. Like Alcolumbre, he also did not proceed with several other similar requests against Moraes and other STF ministers.

Pacheco also built a close relationship with Lula, which led to him being considered to take on a ministry in the federal government, a possibility later discarded, and also to run for the government of Minas Gerais in next year’s elections.

It is precisely this possible candidacy, however, that became an obstacle to his nomination to the STF, as Lula does not hide his preference for Pacheco to run for government.

In addition to being the second largest electoral college in the country, Minas is a swing state, considered decisive for the good performance of presidential candidates.

The senator’s entourage does not see a plan B to run for the Minas Gerais government with the possibility of Pacheco taking up a seat in the Supreme Court. In addition to being Lula’s favorite to run for government, he appears as the government’s best-positioned name in internal polls. The current vice-governor, Mateus Simões, should run for command of the state in opposition to the federal government.

Lula began to have a close relationship with Pacheco since he assumed his third term. During his presidency, the PT member invited Pacheco to travel on the presidential plane on several occasions and showed sympathy for the senator. In June of this year, Lula even called Pacheco the “future governor of Minas Gerais”. Still, it is not as close a relationship as the one he has with Messiah, who has frequent meetings with the president.

Bruno Dantas

Former president of the TCU, Dantas is not the declared favorite of any group, but his ability to articulate with different political spectrums and his close relationship with STF ministers, such as Gilmar Mendes, make him a competitive name.

His critical stance towards Lava Jato and his guarantor profile please sectors of the government and the Judiciary. Dantas is also close to Davi Alcolumbre and Renan Calheiros (MDB-AL), which could facilitate his approval in the Senate.

At the STF, his candidacy is viewed with respect, although it does not arouse the same enthusiasm as Pacheco or even Messias.

Still, its presence in the dispute expands the range of options and can serve as a consensus alternative if the scenario becomes more polarized.

Lula’s interlocutors familiar with issues related to the Judiciary assess that the former president of the TCU is a recognized jurist, with academic production, an aspect that can also be considered in light of Barroso’s academic profile.

People close to Dantas also believe in the old relationship between him and Lula, with whom he maintains frequent contact via telephone.

Some decisions he made at the TCU that were considered decisive for the government are also remembered, such as the one that released R$6 billion in resources for the “Pé-de-meia” program.

Despite this, there are those who see Dantas as a “very political” option, without a direct connection with Lula, who has demonstrated that he prioritizes people with whom he maintains a very close relationship.

Another point that is highlighted as unfavorable to his candidacy is resistance from a wing of the PT, which sees him as “far from the left”.