Bombs no longer fall on Gaza. Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, all broken, return to their families. The first stage of Trump’s peace plan has triumphed, but peace remains far away. On the winding map that leads to it, two steep rocks stand out. The first, which can already be seen, is the demand to lay down the weapons of the . The second, far away, at the end of the road, is the state self-determination agreement.
The ceasefire with captive exchange marks a double defeat, for Netanyahu and Hamas. Trump forced Netanyahu to renounce ethnic cleansing and the annexation of , a maximalist program of his extremist ministers that became an explicit objective of his criminal government. Turkey, Qatar, Egypt and the other Arab countries involved in the plan imposed on the exiled leaders of Hamas the decision to hand over the hostages, who acted as the ultimate trump card of the terrorist leaders in Gaza. Finally, at least for a while, a breath of life runs through Israeli and Palestinian societies.
The celebration is short-lived. The next step involves the disarmament of Hamas, in exchange for gradual Israeli withdrawals to a “security perimeter” on the edge of the Gaza Strip. The ball remains in the court of the fundamentalist organization, as weapons have become their remaining source of political influence.
Hamas supplanted Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah in elections to the Gaza self-governing council in 2005. Today, however, Palestinians despise both factions equally. The catastrophe caused by the October 7th attacks suppressed what remained of Hamas’ legitimacy. Without the weapons, which they swore to keep until the proclamation of a Palestinian State, fundamentalists will experience inexorable decline.
The plan provides for amnesty for combatants who lay down their arms or the alternative of exile. It is difficult to imagine that Hamas will accept any of these hypotheses. In any case, there would remain armed rejectionist fragments, which will provide alibis for Netanyahu and his extremists to resume the genocidal program. The way out, which depends on Trump and the Arab countries, lies in an international stabilization force willing to eliminate the remaining militias.
In the exchange of hostages for prisoners, Netanyahu resisted the release of Marwan Barghouti, who has been rotting in a dungeon since 2002. Recently, in a show of cowardice, extremist minister Itamar Ben-Gvir harassed Barghouti in his cell and published a video of the sordid act. The pretext for resisting the release of the only Palestinian leader who has broad popular support is the controversial conviction for his alleged responsibility in acts of terror. The real reason is Barghouti’s ironclad loyalty to the principle of two-state peace.
The rock at the end of the path is called the Palestinian State. A Palestinian Authority led by Barghouti would have sufficient political legitimacy to negotiate the painful concessions essential to peace. But, contrary to the promises of his predecessors on the right or left, Netanyahu turned the veto of a Palestinian State into his political reason for existing.
Trump’s plan would never have gotten off the ground without the light at the end of the road. Will the American president have the persistence and clarity to impose peace on Netanyahu?
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